Analyzing the key problems of the Russian political process (a possible position of Russia in the contemporary world, politicians' striving for a personal success absolutely separated from the social result of politicians' activities, confrontations among the elite corporations, Chechnya war issue, threat posed by the terrorist Islam, the power's attempts to change control of the elite for surprise assaults upon the elite groups), the author demonstrates that the Russian authorities still lack an understanding of the realistic strategy and aims, i. e., the power in Russia still lacks qualities intrinsic to any power subject.
Being unable to mobilize the society for enhancement of its own might the power erroneously suppose that the social inertness and the opposition's weakness ensure security of the power. Moreover, the power tries to control by applying pressure against its enfeebled opponents. But this kind of pressure throws the opposition in the enemies of Russia arms, makes the social and elite consolidation impossible and weakens the power even more.
The state without the society is dead. And we have to undertake whatever we can to change this situation.
The author sums up results of the first 100 days of Putin’s tenure, of 100 days euphoria burning out, of 100 days of choice between action and pretence of action. The author introduces the notion of «the Family» and defines it as the damaged, maimed section of the Russian society. He calls for undertaking whatever is possible to localize this section and to prevent the society as a whole from transformation into «the Family».
The author refers to the recent Pushkin Square explosion and, having considered arguments brought forward in favor of the «Chechen trace» of the tragedy, makes the principal emphasis on the ascending power of the 21th century, Islam which is slowly consolidating mass, just awaken from its lethargy due to the shock of colonization, and on «the System», i.e. the section of Islam which agreed to become an instrument for certain Western forces' strategy of «the Big Game» «the Big Elite» plays.
The author expresses his deepest concern with disappearance of the Developing humankind’s unity principle. The Yalta system is decaying and the Unity of the world principle, as it was stated by Stalin and F.D.Roosevelt, is following the suit. The manifesto of sustainable development was the direct challenge to the Unity of the world principle. New globalists are interested in a situation within which it would be possible to increase the cash flow irreversibly and only in the single point of the financial space. The financial grip is getting more and more tough and ready for the real global duel. Imitations, diversions are elements of hostilities. A system is the totality of elements integrated by an aim. Aid to the developing countries is not even discussed within framework of the new model of the world organization. The aim is not even declared within this framework. Escape from the aim is tantamount to escape from the Humankind’s unity principle. History is the generator of new aims. However an aim tends to turn into a dead dogma and that leads a system to become a power which impedes and even paralyzes appearance of the new. If a form is getting stiff and starts to kill, not to develop its content, such form should be driven in its proper place.
Putin. A Year at the Helm
The state in Russia has always been an instrument for realization of a certain universal project. The great power notion is incompatible with the new Russian tradition and culture because there is no link between the statehood and a universal project in these tradition and culture. The author notes that in choosing sides between antagonists of statehood and supporters of statehood whose main plank, patriotism plus globalism is alien to him, he nevertheless takes the side of the latter. The idea of entering the New world order which conquered minds of the overwhelming majority is absolutely suicidal for Russia. A considerable humanistic potential for forced spiritual growth which was accumulated within the Soviet civilization is much needed now for Russia as well as for the whole world and the more so than ever in the past. The author thinks that strengthening of the President’s power vertical is required but he sees no actual steps in the right direction. It is impossible to build the power vertical in a society which lacks verticals of meanings, values, ideas.
«The Striped Raid» or on What Is Going on with the Power in Russia
The present day fuss about «the crisis of power» is based on the fundamental incongruence between the content of the political process in Russia and the political language which is used to describe the process. The whole culture of human process is leaned upon the image of a hero who performs extreme efforts. In post-Soviet Russia everything was sold for a convenience. However no life can be constructed on the basis of such sales. The idea of convenience does not generate a convenience. This idea is a by-product of heroic efforts made by somebody. The country may be a place for whatever you may like but not a place for convenience because it is a place for convenience it will become a macroAushwitz. The country is being built not by the Kremlin but by the misfortune. And take note: the making is to be by far more long process then what is going on.
Orchaization and Progress
The author presents the analysis of «David and Goliath», the article by H.A.Noukhaev, former chief of intelligence under General Dudaev and, at the present time, the head of the Caucasian common market. Mr.Noukhaev blatantly rejects such values as the national state and asserts that the civilization and the city as the child of the civilization are the abomination which must be fought while barbarism and tribal relations are praised and glorified. The author presents convincing arguments against Noukhaev’s propositions and emphasizes that these propositions are particulary dangerous because they neatly find their place in G. Bush new administration’s global policy. Nazi ideas, principles of «Annanarbe» SS institute, though in a very strongly transformed form, which does not make them less venomous, exist within the present day American establishment. The «new world order» of this type propagates de-industrialization, archaization, substitute religiosity etc. for everyone except the elite core of the humankind. The most brutal epoch we are coming in, the post-modernity is an instrument of governing the world and its transformation into anti-humanity, even more abominable than the fascism. The only possible way to resist this trend is to achieve a greater understanding of statehood and to implement this greater understanding.
Considering conflict of the state authority and NTV the author exposes the general trend of political process in Russia. Contrary to what some people suspect, the content of the game around of NTV is not the nationalization but the transition of this comprador yet national TV company to the international domain. In fact, the TV heritage is being divided among international entities that are going to control the population. Self-conscious and active part of the national community cannot perform within the environment created in the country. All fragments connected to the elite reproduction structure act as parasites that get their nourishment from the remnants of the Soviet heritage. The coercive shutdown of NTV nudges these parts of society to establish direct connections with the West since if the country is a part of the megasystem then it is apparently much better to serve the megasystem directly, with no intermediary. NTV connected to the West and quasi civic society are getting to be very dangerous. Of all liberal theories the one chosen in Russia is the theory which implies and encourages atomization, i.e., the utter fragmentation of the society into a sum of separate individuals. However the society can exist only if it elite is not atomized but consolidated. If the elite as well as the society is permeated with the gangsters' spirit, if secret services people who are deprived of the idea of service but still possess the super professional skills become arrant bandits then the state is transforming itself into an analog of medieval pirates' states. And if at the same time the image of the state which somehow rules the gangsters' nation is being created then other states are prompted to raise calls for genocide of gangsters' nation. Thus, the principal task for today is to demonstrate a different way and type of life.
In the Teeth of Necessity
If one gets understanding of the objective laws that govern social processes one gains an ability to predict the character of some macrosocial trend. The author deals with the gloom tendency which manifests itself in the outrageous disregard of the historical memory whether it is related to the Great Patriotic War of 1941−1945 or to the Battle on Kulikovo field which recently has become the favorite target of those who attacks the historical memory with particular vehemence. The author indicates that this deplorable tendency is connected, first and foremost, to activities of the Eurasians: Doughin, Hukhaev, Yakhimchik et al. Activities of these persons is aimed at destruction of Russia and correspond to ideas of Brzezinski. «Eurasia» movement presided by Doughin is, in fact, the horse of Troy which some forces are going to employ in order to make a loose conglomeration of the centralized Russian state. That is why President Putin’s state-consolidating activities are so important for the country. At the same time the author argues that the support of the patriotic electorate is the most important for Putin.
Devaluation of dollar: a Myth or a Reality?
The authors offer analysis of the situation related to a possibility of the dollar’s devaluation and provide a detailed examination of «natural-objective» and subjective-active factors that have impact on the process. The authors also deal with games played by other centers of economic power and try to overcome their dependence from the USA. Various scenarios of «the dollar’s crash» and consequences such event may have for Russia are examined. The authors analyze the current conditions of the American economy and factors that impede and cushion a crash. At the same time it is emphasized that at the present time there are no conceptual models, no theories, no theoretical paradigms that allow a strategic forecasting. Theoretical framework for such efforts does not exist. Moreover, there is an obvious lack of reliable data for such forecasting. The authors' own position is that no serious war or attack against the dollar or the USA economic supremacy will happen because weakening of the dollar and the USA will inevitably bring about a global crisis. No country or party will profit from such crisis. If it erupts, it will pose a particular danger for Russia.
The Terrorists Attacks on the USA. The Systemic Analysis of Events and their Consequences
Since reactions of the society to the terrorist acts committed in the USA on September 11, 2001, revealed a lack of intellectual and methodological ability to comprehend the quality of the new world reality which is emerging right before our eyes the author tries somehow to make up this deficiency of understanding. The terrorist attacks are considered as a secret operation of a new kind, as injection of specific «activities clusters» into our world. These activities are carried on in another world and are governed with other laws. To analyze these activities the author introduces the notion of «parallel terrorist civilizations» (PTC). In doing so the author does not mean anything paranormal or «alien», exported from other worlds. The author argues that the PTC is the terrorist mega-structure. Nowadays a person can adequately react to the current of events and make sense of it only if he/she grasps this mega-structure logic and technology. Having done the systemic analysis of the terrorist operation of September 11 and having evaluated its scale, duration, quality and degree of conspiracy closeness the author comes to conclusion the PTC is the most probable organizer of the attack.
Interests Groups: the Historical Retrospective
The article is devoted to analysis of the peculiar phenomenon, i.e., interests groups as subjects of politics and emergence of them in this peculiar capacity in Russia. Investigating approaches to the problem that exist in the scientific literature author comes to conclusion that scholars have to pay the greatest attention to those interests groups that exert influence on power structures in order to realize their interests without direct claims for the political power. Such groups deserve the appellation of «pressure groups». Retrospective analysis of political role played by pressure groups created in big business stratum prior the October revolution allows isolate two stages in history of the state and big business relationships development in Russia: the period of Alexander II reforms and the period of industrial upsurge at the end of 19th and early 20th centuries. As the author demonstrates, there were two main obstacles to realization of the Russian bourgeoisie pretensions to power: lack of capital among the Russian businessmen and the political weakness of the Russian bourgeoisie.
Intellect, elite and government
Crisis of the Modern civilization and the revolution in Weltanshaaung form the essence of the 20th century. The world was divided, secularized to a greater or lesser extent and nationalized. The author investigates the elites' impact on the surrounding world status, «the regal triad» («the elite — the club — the government») and the process of the world’s postmodernization. By 1970s ability of the elite to influence the course of events reached a new level or quality. From that time one may speak of the influence on processes of the global scale, i.e., about making of a new course of the history. A new and perspective subject of history is emerging: the postcolonial world. A «new class» is asserting itself in the society. This class is different from the elite of the past. The preliminary results of «the better future formation» process, i.e., outlines of a new global order are gradually getting visible. Russia deprived of the strategic planning system of its own as well as of conceptual intelligence finds itself to be a hostage to alien strategies, an object of the game played all over the global chess board.
The Apology of Political Technologies
The article deals with so called political technologies that are not just a component of the contemporary Russian politics but its vital component. Political technologies' significance cannot be overestimated for they ensure reproduction of the political, economic and social structure of post-Soviet Russia by far more effectively than traditional institutions of suppression. At the same time political technologies form a thriving business the gross and net turnover of which amounts to millions of dollars. Unfortunately, this business is subject to widespread criticism which seems to be unjust because critics are deeply involved in politics created and maintained by political technologists and often resort to political technologies and even to political technologists' services. The author identifies basic functions political technologists perform, describes these functions and appraises them. Finally, the author reveals the roots of ambivalent attitudes to political technologists and concludes that were the Russian public conscience consistent the political technologists would have been praised, awarded admired and adored. Instead of that political technologists are despised and even hated. Ironically, political technologists reap what they have sown for they contributed a lot to driving public conscience into the current schizophrenic condition.
Humanism and Post-modernist Degeneration of Politics
The author expounds his opinion of neo-Eurasian movement, its participants and those who oppose it. At the present time the neo-Eurasian movement can be considered as an experiment aimed at synthesis of Islam and Teutonic component. Its main potential danger for the contemporary Russia consists in the fact that from a marginal doctrine it may emerge as the state ideology. The history of neo-Eurasian movement starts in the 1960s when people who looked for alternative to the Communist ideology emerged within the Russian elite. After collapse of the USSR new participants joined veterans. These newcomers arrived from the circle of those people who previously were pretty satisfied with the Soviet official ideology. The author emphasizes that despite their obvious anti-Semitism (which is particularly strong among the Islamic part of the movement) the present day Eurasians are ready to embrace Jewish «zealots» in order to legalize their doctrine with the help of Jewish participation. The danger posed by this rapprochement is beyond any doubt for the author.
Reaction of A. Dugin, a leader of Eurasians, to the article which was initially published in Tel-Aviv newspaper «Vesti» and rejoinder by D. Kontorer form the logical conclusion of the publication.
The Struggle on Two Fronts. The Conceptual and Analitical Memorandum
Analyzing the current situation in Russia the author comes to conclusion that we are witnessing not a reform, not a revolution but an Experiment, which switches on and unfolds the civilization disaster. The Experiment is a result of the Soviet elite groups' consensus the origin of which is to be sought in the situation in the Soviet elite in the later Stalinist period. This consensus was being planned in bowels of the stagnation period and was launched during the «perestroika» years. The Experiment’s strategic meaningful potential and its final target is the struggle against the Reason and History. In the course of this struggle «homo sapiens» is to be destroyed. The struggle is carried on by virtue of psychosocial terror as well as by virtue of indirect methods, i.e., splitting of the society into pre-historic regressive archaic forms and post-historic social and cultural technologism (post-modernism etc.). As soon as the social mass is split into secondary archaic fragments and political post-modernity is achieved, it is senseless to speak of political struggle against the Experiment since the antagonistic social environment has acquired a diffuse character. The struggle against the alliance (or alloy) of archaism and post-modernity requires a crystallization of proper social material, peculiar forms of activity, and intellectual war on two fronts. This crystallization may rest on contraposition of the Experiment and fundamental value orientations that in Russia and in the world as a whole are connected with concepts of the Soviet heritage. In the present day political environment lack of transparency and ambiguity reign supreme and form the nourishing medium for the «patriotic opposition». However under the new circumstances only «small social bodies of higher density» (i.e., masses of intact and sound life able to reproduce anti-regressive samples of life and activities and to transmit them) can counter the archaistic and post-modern regress.
September 11 phenomenon and the movement towards a nonstationary system of the world ties
Events of September 11, 2001 cast a brighter light on a new global situation forming the world ties' system. Besides that, these events became the trigger for systemic actions that, if one summarizes what is going on, constitutes the 'new imperialism', i.e., the active policy aimed at the events' outrunning. Thus it is a prototype of the US 'doctrine of preemptive actions'. Simultaneously with the USA rise horizons of development of another global subject, an economic universality of the New North, the product of universal economy subject to commands of high quarters and the process of elites' transnationalization becomes more and more visible. Coincident with that the sphere of what was previously considered as the South expands. Evaluations of the South diverge within a wide range: from «the source of life» supporting existence of the aging West to «the new barbarity» strangling the civilization. The world North and the world South acquire the global proportions. They exist on the same planet but represent increasingly different worlds that have different historical teleologies. Perhaps, nowadays two strategic scenarios of the development may be traced. One logical trajectory with a rather clear design is the peaceful completion of the geo-economic structure' construction or, to put it in simpler terms, creation of the global issue and fiscal system. However if the planet’s cataloging which has manifested itself proves to be an illusion of a kind (the origins of this illusion are to be sought in mechanistic notions of the Enlightenment) and, consequently, the world stumbles over arising perturbations with increasing frequency the strategy related to execution of preemptive actions in the global policies' sphere and with a dynamic system of processes management will strengthen and assert itself as a new social norm.
Central Asia. Politically Correct Doctrines and Real Trends in Macro-regional and Global Processes
The article deals with the current situation and issues of policies restructuring in Central Asia and Central Asian region in result of the anti-terrorist operation in Afghanistan. The macro-region as a whole in different measures supports the struggle against terrorism but within this struggle’s framework the USA infiltrates the region and starts playing military-political and economic game of its own there. At the same time China is being pushed off the region while Russia is being squeezed out of it. Raw materials resources and transportation infrastructure are being placed under control. The USA supports and enhances opposition’s attacks against the authorities in all countries while number of schism axes is increasing drastically and elites and populations are drifting away from each other. The political space as a whole is getting to be increasingly chaotic and the social structure is getting to be increasingly fragmented. All that brings about build-up of instability. The authors demonstrate that in Afghanistan nothing has changed but enhancement of instability and… growth of narcotic drugs output. That situation is one more evidence that the world starts building differently: the controlled instability is being created at the periphery and this instability promotes the stagnation. The new «grand game» is the arms race and at the same time the scramble for conquest of narcotic drugs producing territories is unfolding. «Clashes» among potential lords of the world bring about construction of periphery of the peculiar archaic type. The contemporary situation is characterized by the fact that ideology as a form of the classic conscience and the classic modern is replaced with magic craft which is specific to the archaic epoch and post-modern. Synthesis of these two epochs is really abominable. To resist those who impose archaic forms of life and thought it is necessary to mobilize all healthy social forces for fight against indigenization of the society.
The terrorist act in the theater center demonstrated that there are major elite forces in Russia that are ready to allow the country to disintegrate by playing «Chechen card» and with the aim to change the power. Allegations that the bourgeois revolution has occurred in Russia are absolutely unsubstantiated. In fact, in result of «privatization of the basis by way of sawing the superstructure up to pieces» the Russian elite has launched processes of political and economic feudalization and social archaization of the country. The secondary feudalism does need a strong state center. Feudalism requires gradual imposition of confederation arrangement of the state.
The real resource is in hands of quasi-dominant parasite class. This class exhausts the country and does not create stable productive systems. Under such circumstances a person who is willing to get something different has to solve the problem of resources (including pecuniary resource) required for a struggle for his/her alternative project. Money may appear around some project synthesis or a tactical coincidence of interests on the basis of realization of one’s own project (if so, we may call such person an independent agent and speak of politics). However the resources may arise on the basis of integration into an alien project (if it is the case we can speak of a footman and betrayal). Berezovski has a project, this is why he is an independent agent. Prokhanov takes money from Berezovski for realization of Berezovski’s confederation project.
The integrity of Russia is suspended on very thin threads. The main miracle is the steady resistance of the peoples of Northern Caucasus who do not yield to provocation of Chechens. It is very easy to blast the situation by connecting quasi-liberal and quasi-patriotic provocative deeds with errors of the power.
The present day Russian reality does not create a genuine series of events. What we are experiencing is waiting for what has already happened. And from this point of view the collapse of the USSR and of Communism should be considered to be the main event of 2002 as well as preceding ones. People in the West argue that Communism and Fascism are the first principal foes of the humankind now defeated by liberalism. This blatant lie was irrefutably and definitely rejected by such authorities as Churchill and Roosevelt who were absolutely sure that Fascism was defeated precisely by Communism already has bad repercussions for its authors. Having put the end to Communism (not by winning but by corrupting it) and made Communism equal to Fascism the Western civilization has lost its last chance, the ideological and mobilization resource necessary for struggle of the progressive humanism with the encroaching obscurantism. As regards Russia it has experienced the social hybridization, i. e., intertwining of the worst characteristics of the Soviet socialism with the worst characteristics of the criminal «presumable», «as if» capitalism. A terrible process has been launched. This process is capable to transform the Russian statehood into nothing. On the eve of the imminent conflicts of civilizations the greater part of the Russia media works for corruption of the army, the people, the society, the elite. It is to say that media works for the death and destruction of the country.
The Garden of Ramifying Tracks
Where the main meaning of the American-Iraqi war lies? Neither the level of military threats, nor oil consequences or anti-Americanism proves to be the fundamental result and effect of the war but the fact that now it is impossible to get into the «house» we sought to get into so passionately (i.e., into the so called Western community). Actually a war between the USA and Europe is ripening. At the present time there are three feasible centers of power in the world: China, Europe (provided it will succeed in unification) and Islam (provided it will succeed in unification). Russia is no longer the superpower and a center of power. Disintegration of the USSR brought about collapse of the world order and destruction of Communism, alternative Western project the carrier of which the USSR was. Destruction of Communism turned out to be the triumph of anti-Western forces that now are free to work, under the banner of globalism, at destruction of liberalism as well as the USA. Globalism eliminates national sovereignties and will become the grave-digger of the European culture. The master of globalization is the grand political post-modern which implies, at first, the power of concealed obscurantism and then a new type of civilization, i.e. anti-civilization. Perhaps, Islam will gain from globalization while Russia will crumble away in it. Russia has either form an alliance with Islam and challenge to the West or to fight against Islam and look for allies in the West. The war in Iraq is a way, though inadequate to plug in holes through which the East penetrates the West. The Western projects needs alternatives aimed at the future. Otherwise the world will either burn in a nuclear war or decay.
Contrary to the opinion which is widely discussed in media and states that the current exacerbation of instability in Russia is attributed just to the active role played by «the Kremlin administrators» and representatives of some state-owned companies who are designing multi-move combinations to achieve their goals the author suppose that this exacerbation is a projection of the global contradictions on Russia. Participants of the Russian conflict are mere figures in the Big chess game. The peculiarity of the world situation consists in formation of a string coalition which includes opponents of President Bush from Europe, Islamic world and the Far Asia. This coalition has joined opponents of Bush in America. General anti-American attitudes and moods are being replaced with the trend to choose among the American political project the one which might be convenient for opponents of Bush. This project is globalization, the power of transnational elites, erosion of national states. (Islam is also in favor of globalization and offers the presumable «specific» project of globalization of its own). The goal and outcome of the coalition’s activities is destruction of the «Modern» project which implies development and making of every state. Anti-Bush forces are enormous and they enjoy a solid support in Russia. Chains of control of the current situation in Russia can be traced to the elites involved in this global process. The goal of the Russia project is to launch, initiate instability. Making of a Parliamentary republic in Russia may well be of interest for the anti-Bush alliance. This alliance does not need Putin who did not march against Bush.
Alliance of the oligarchs and the Communist cannot beget any new meaningful strategy because both allies are ideologically sterile. The danger of this alliance consists, first of all, in the fact that it places destructive anti-state slogans on its banner. As early as in 1996 the CPRF tried to denounce the Belovezhski agreements and thus placed legitimacy of Russia as the successor to the USSR in doubt from the legal point of view. Collapse of the USSR happened due to the constitutional confederalism (right of nations to self-determination) when the unitary dictatorship ceased to contain the devil of confederation. Nowadays the oligarchs and the Communists actually demand a confederation for Russia. The mechanism for that is transformation of the country into a parliamentary Republic. Confederalism and separatism will be immediately introduced into the parliamentary model. The present day pseudo-oligarchs has no relation to the real oligarchy which has at least the selfish understanding of the power’s price and understands that the state for them means the capitalization of status. If there is no state infrastructure then fortunes evaluated in many billions are left unprotected. The power cannot be bought. It has to be won. Now the country is worn out by anticipation, despair and hope. The appearance of stagnation means that the processes that went down to the depths will inevitably erupt with a new power.
The Arest of Khodorkovski Is Something Direcly Opposite to What Is Declared to Be
The arrest of Khodorkovski is something directly opposite to what is declared to be. Compliance with the law is impossible out of the context of the profound, non-repressive openness. Repression can annihilate and bury any public belief in the legal punishment. The events that develop now are a parody of 1937 and bring with them the net destruction. It is a genie of chaos released from its bottle. The unleashed process is the process of re-division of property. Regress is not stopped and overcome in Russia, de-modernization goes on unabated. The country needs an ideology which allows for construction of relationships in its elite and society.
Does the Power Confront a Prospect of February?
At the first glance it may seem to be a paradox but Eltsin’s refusal to ban CPRF contributed a lot to consolidation of the existing regime and to discredit the Communists. Nowadays Russia has become a country of directed (or manageable) democracy where elites constitute the principal source of authority. These elites define their politicians and bring to the front of the people like, for example, Zhirinovski who makes the most sensitive issue of Russia, the Russian question exceptionally vulgar and imparts a ludicrous character to it. People who vote for Zhirinovski send a signal to the authorities that they are disappointed with the present politics while results of election to the State Duma indicate that the people demand from the power to take up the national modernization project in serious. A tough reshuffling of elite is needed while the elite has to repudiate the dolce vita style, to change for working casual dress and to subject itself to attainment of the only aim, i.e., the national modernization. The time for revolution from above has arrived.
The situation in Russia is characterized by lack of even an inertial stability for the inertia leads it towards a big bang. However now the president is completely responsible for what is going on. Putin’s strength lies in his vulnerability (consequently, he has to act) while his weakness lies in the fact that he has not acquired the full awareness of his vulnerability as yet. The source of threats to Putin is concealed in the fact that he and the core group he relies on are defined and determined by their affiliation with the KGB. The positively colored expectation is the main content of the masses' attitude to Putin while the elite as a whole hates him. The people do not allow the elite to launch a real onslaught on the president but as the positive expectation will be exhausted a situation of a new quality, i.e. situation of threats' realization will emerge. The first threat proceeds form the parliament: having won a situational victory at the election of December 7, 2003, in the final analysis Putin has suffered a strategic defeat for he has got a Duma able to declare impeachment and modify the Constitution. The second threat lies in the constructed power system’s sheer inability to fight against loyalty: the system is becoming relaxed when it is being licked all around. The third threat lies in the fact that it is pernicious to develop any relationships with the present day regressive «aggregate reality». Hence the need in a revolution from above though there is no support to rely on. The fourth threat is the social protest. Earlier this protest was effectively short-circuited on the CPRF and the opposition in the Duma. Now it is squeezed to the streets and is becoming to be a threat of Putin’s power dismounting. One cannot forget global contradictions that require from the president structures and resources that are simply unavailable today.
Regional Elites of Russia: Composition and Trends of Development
The articles deals with the make-up of regional elites in a particular span of time and the dynamics of the extent to which members of these elites exercised influence on the social, political and economic situation in every particular region which has its own, often unique specific characteristics. The article also demonstrates peculiarities of mechanisms that defined formation of regional political and economic elites in terms of influence factors. This approach allows comparing regions with each other on one hand and on the other hand getting the result which is representative for the Russian Federation as a whole. The experts' opinions poll made in the research of 2000 covered 54 regions while the similar poll carried out in 2003 covered 66 regions. The poll of 2003 is not a mere extended repetition of the research of 2000 but its qualitatively new stage. The novelty of the poll made in 2003 lies in the conceptual comprehension of the very mechanisms of influence at the regional level.
A New World Order or a New World Disorder?
The authors discuss the issue of what the world power centers are building nowadays: whether an order is being constructed or the chaos? To answer the question the authors consider infrastructures of usual, traditional type such as extraction and transportation, transportation communication lines as well as military political, economic infrastructures and infrastructures of the social control. The analysis demonstrates that the world power centers introduce greater chaos in all mentioned infrastructures. Under the guise of struggle against terrorism the world power centers bring various weapons (up to nuclear ones) in regions they are interested in; they are removing, part by part, the existing state structures under the pretext of «nations' right to self-determination» and human rights protection; by means of financial and credit system they are intensifying poverty and economic chaos that bring about the political instability. Infrastructures that are created, first of all, by the US are designated rather for managing chaos and not for ensuring an order. Creators of such «new world order» try to mystify the problem and conceal their real aims. In fact, they need the world chaos that is the symbol of the utmost, ultimate lack of freedom. Russia has to learn how top live in situation of chaos, to learn how to manage chaos in such a way that allows it to become in a order of a kind as it happened during realization of the «Red project». In the USSR the power of ideas charged the masses for implementation of great changes and helped to overwhelm fascism. Nowadays Russia is a test field for any forms of regress and Russia' entering into the «new world order» described above will mean that our national sovereignty and our historical future will be ended forever.
The author analyzes, on the basis of mass media communications about events in Ingushetia in night from June 21 to June 22, 2004, the very events as well as contradictory evaluations of them made by officials. It is noted that the character of activities and results of the raid do not permit to reduce interpretation of events to lack of responsibility and non-capability of the Federal forces and local law enforcement bodies. Initiators of the Ingushetian events are to be looked for among the people who are interested in escalation of the conflict in Northern Caucasus including some members of the Russian bureaucracy and the Russian military elite. The Ingushetian tragedy proved to be possible because the top authority is cut off the principal social processes and the broad layer of the Russian reality. Its attempts to reduce complexity of the Russian situation to the sphere of simple answers given in language of «technocratic pragmatism» revenge for themselves with the most heavy defeats. The authority has to engage itself in problems of information wars, to monitor transformation of forms in which the ideology revels and develops itself, to manage these forms. The authority is in the desperate need of strategy which gives answers to the issues of the topical issues. A feeling of strategic blind alley is maturing in the society and the authority may speak the pragmatic «language of administrative optimism' as much as it wishes but the society has ceased to perceive this language. Alienation of the «pragmatics» of the authority from ideology must be removed. Otherwise the negative processes in the country shall not be stopped and Russia will perish.
The Warning that Wasn't Heard: from Nazran to Beslan and Further Calling at Every Stop
The article is an analytical investigation of the events that took place in Russia in August-September and were connected with the terrorist attacks. It is pointed out that the authority has finally admitted that Russia was declared a war. The author of the article emphasizes that the developing war is a special, political one, and the minute details of its technologies have already been thoroughly elaborated. The scenarios are well-known. They are: first — to let Islam capture Russia and to fence off China with the help of this space, second — to make Russian «hot points» international and then proceed to some soft forms of relative occupation. The talks about the death of Russia are not groundless and we all are guilty in its fading, but the authority and its leader are the first to blame. As far as the war against Russia is admitted it is necessary to understand who our enemy is. The most important thing in the war that came to us with the terrorist attacks of Nord-Ost, Nazran, Grozny and Beslan is the existence of the terrorist infrastructure. The powerful international clans with the definite character of intelligence services are at war. They start the battle by creating a number of critical political situations after which everything changes in the state. Even the future existence of the state becomes doubtful after their appearance. To have Russia survived one needs first of all to obtain the understanding of the global context of the war.
A Liquidation Committee? Russia Is Expecting Other Bad News
The author analyses the events that prove the possible disintegration of Russia and tries to find the ways to fight it. The author describes the liquidation process and how it is being brought into life. This project has a foreign customer, but no foreign order can exist without inner infrastructure. This infrastructure involves those who are interested in the disintegration. If the leader of the state cannot break the situation he has to be responsible for associating. The struggle against the liquidation goes hand in hand with the Project. Only mobilization can oppose the liquidation.
Ukraine: A Challenge and a Lesson for Russia
In the process of its formation, the Ukrainian republic has become polarised. A complex geographical and political split separates the East and South from the West, following the interests of different clans. This rift causes weakness at the state level, which in turn makes the Ukraine more susceptible to outside influence. Today, the most worrying destabilising factor in the republic is the growth of radical Islam in the Crimea. The recent presidential elections in the Ukraine showed that in the near future, American foreign policy may undergo radical change, leading to the formation of an American-Islamic-European union designed to weaken or even destroy Russia. The main international consequence of recent events in the Ukraine is the threat of a ‘belt' emerging which would isolate Russia from Europe, as well as the threat of radical Islam permeating Russia through the Caucasus. An Islamic explosion in the Caucasus would cause detonations in Adygea, the North Caucasus and the Volga region. Central Asia and the Middle East would follow suit.
What we see happening in the Ukraine today could be called a particularly shameful triumph of American policy. The USA have blatantly disregarded all civilised electoral norms. Far from instating Western democratic order in the Ukraine, America is steadily pushing the world into the flames of radical Islam. Unlike the West, Russia today has no clear-cut project for civilisation. In the absence of such a project, it will most likely prove unable to maintain the Ukraine within its sphere of influence. Furthermore, the Ukrainian scenario will then be repeated in other CIS republics and, finally, in Moscow itself. Objectively speaking, the success which American policy is currently enjoying in the Ukraine is doing nothing to stabilise the political situation in the republic. On the contrary, the entire range of ideological, political and clan-driven economic rifts dividing the republic has become deeper and more pronounced. Were the Kremlin to recognise and use this situation to its own advantage, Moscow’s ignominious defeat in the Ukraine could eventually be turned into something of a victory.
Bratislava Summit: Insignificant Ephemeral Episode or the Key Event?
The author analyzes processes that take place within ruling circles of post-Soviet Russia and focuses on the elite split and struggle of competing clan-based factions. The author traces transformations that occur within the Russian ruling circles depending on the Republican or Democratic administrations come to power in the USA. Mechanisms of V. Putin accession and his transformation from a «man of hope» to a «man of hatred» in perception of influential elite groups of the USA are discussed. The author emphasizes that old American plans for territorial dismemberment of Russia have reappeared and argues that by the moment of Bratislava summit the US principal demand was the US control over nuclear weapon in territory of Russia. If the issue of «Declaration on the enslaved nations» implementation is brought into the US agenda it will transfer process in Russia into the lethal phase. The only chance for resurrection of Russia is a new accelerated modernization and assertion of the modern project as the value. The first and indispensable prerequisite for that is modernization of the Russian power-holding class which has to accept the modern intellectual substrate into its core.
To discover itself the present day Russia needs a unifying idea, an «assembly point». The author think that Russia’a victory in the WWII can serve as such «assembly point» because understanding of that war essence is not just tribute of its memory. The 60th anniversary of the Victory may and ought to become for everybody at least an attempt to gain the point of assembly. However we see that nowadays attempts are undertaken to draw a line under the War which has the eternal, ontological meaning and to misrepresent its essence. WWII is an enormous battle in which Communism saved the world from Nazism, the battle of the modern and the counter-modern. Equalization of Communism and Nazism as two expressions of totalitarianism is absolutely inadmissible for these phenomena are antipodes, foci of two antagonistic mega-systems. The principal aim for Nazism was to overcome the modern completely. In terms of geopolitics that meant destruction of the USSR and the USA. In terms of philosophy of history that meant complete destruction of Liberalism and Communism. During the cold war the West used Nazis, having integrated them in its elite. In result of that incorporation the West became the murderer of its own modern. Now the humankind can be saved only by the «living meaning» of the renovated modern.
«СHiK» and «TSyK» or What is the Real Content of the Intensifying Power Collision
An old joke: «TSeKa (The Central Committee if the CPSU) tsykaet (threatens) while CheKa (subsequently KGB) chikaet (represses)» reflects the most typical and serious problems of contemporary Russia. From the moment of Putin’s ascension the «chik» (repressive apparatus) acquired a chance to become the «tsyk» (the highest authority). However having acquired the power demonstrated its utter inability to transform itself into the highest authority, to develop an ideology. The country is incapable for mobilization while it is submerged in the criminal filth. In such situations revolutions are a dangerous mummery. Events in Ukraine and Kirgizia were ‘banana' revolutions that exploited selfish and venal interests of power elite groups. Members of these groups are hiding their money at banks abroad. The «banana» situations are easily controlled: owners of bank accounts are simply blackmailed with expropriation of what they embezzled. The Belief in possibility to establish a «peripheral capitalism» all over the post-Soviet space has finished. Nobody is trusted in the space. Therefore, there is an intention to carry out a nationalization and then to pass the principal assets over to the Western corporations. The country is sick. To gather strength for a break-through the really strategic problems are to be put into the agenda. If the power does not want to be swept away it has to change the very type of society, to replace «chik» (capability to repress) with «tsyk» (ability to govern and rule).
Bombing in London: What are They? How will They Influence Us and the World?
The author analyzes information pertaining to explosions in London. Information published in media allows tracing a connection between terrorist attacks and secret services and between terrorist attacks in London and similar events in Madrid. The author expounds an opinion that terrorists actually fir into scenarios elaborated by secret services. Leaders of the global Jihad are confident that the only way through which they can influence the European governments is the influence upon the European nations, that is by «exporting the Iraqi war» to Europe. The author considers the general framework of relations between Islamism and the West in the past, the present and the future. If in the past Islamism was an ally of the West in confrontation with the USSR, nowadays it is in conflict with the West while in the future Islam will be an US ally against China. The first jolts of this future already destabilize Central Asia. It takes power to pass from one framework to another for such passage entails a war of interests and, first of all, war of world order projects. However Modern is collapsing now and post-modern is in offense seizing position once occupied by Modern. It is not so easy for the West to elbow its way out from under the debris. A new idea is necessary for that effort, a new great meaning which the West is afraid to seek.
The author holds that in socio-psychological terms Russia is approaching the end of «the epoch of expectations». The most acute schism of elites, the socio-cultural depression, destruction of the aggregate industrial infrastructure are present. To that the gradual realization of the dead-lock by the public at large should be added. Persistent troubles in Caucasus are obvious as well as lack of proper adjustment of the whole sphere of international relations and general unpreparedness for future trials. The gravest point is incapacity to provide the answer to the principal issue: what is your present and future country? So long as there is no answer to the question there can be no substantial, thoughtful analytical study of events and it is senseless to discuss all details of the Russian politics, social and economic life. The author offers possible, the most sharp and relevant versions of the answer to the question. 1. Contemporary Russia is the country which successfully, if painfully could to move from the systemic pathology (the «Soviet regime») to imperfect but normal condition. 2. Contemporary Russia is the country where dismissal of pathology is a myth. The real content of events is aggravation of pathology, transition of pathology to a new phase. 3. Imperfect Soviet civilization accumulated contradictions and exploded like Chernobyl. This explosion created a «zone». On its ruins people make business and settle down with various levels of comfort. Choice of the answer begets the agenda. At least, it is necessary to prepare for unfavorable scenarios. At the maximum a person has to decide whether he/she is willing to exist in «the zone» or not and whether a person is able and willing to fight against such existence or not.
Economics of Inflation and of Raw Materials Export Stagflation
The author considers inflation as a complicated and multi-dimensional phenomenon. The greatest danger is presented not by inflation per se, but its impact on the economic climate in the country. In order to understand this impact one has to know the real condition of the Russian economy. And official reports and statements are utterly unfit for this end. The official statistics disguises inflation as index on consumer prices. At the same time unprecedented withdrawal of money from the economy is connected with greater influx of money to the country. A «machine» for reception and use of investments has not been created in Russia. In result of that despite the permanent «sterilization» of money the country found itself in condition of short supply of money in the real economy. Such policy accelerates the tempo of the Soviet economic heritage dissaving. The principal point is how to change the state and prompt it to develop and implement a new and effective economic strategy is not discussed in earnest. This question is not even raised.
The real project of development connected with the Western civilization is the Modern project. The author believes that Russia is another, alternative West and Communism is an alternative Modern. The Modern project has created a great literary language, uplifted history to an unprecedented height, created centralized national state and nation. The Modern as a design and the nation comprise the holistic unity of the project and its subject. The «leap from feudalism into socialism» suggested by Lenin was a way to pass by the modernization stage which was destroying the empire. In fact, it was an alternative modernization project. What is going in Russia nowadays is neither a nation building nor modernization but reconstruction of tribes, tribalization. The tragedy of the contemporary world lies in the fact that the charge on resources and environmental capacities of the Earth has caused arguments in favor of impossibility to keep modernization on and in favor of destruction of nation states while creation of such states should be discouraged. If no new energy, no «cultural meaning» are found for implementation of the Modern project then days of the Modern project are counted. The principal threat to humankind is posed by combination of counter-Modern and post-Modern for these two phenomena will bring about loss of human mission and to the «repeated archaization».
Cartoons: a New Twist of the Islamic Topic and its Significance for the Contemprorary Politics
The article which is based on analysis of the «information games» around cartoons of Prophet Muhammad demonstrates that the nature of this game is closely connected with the «landmarks change» in the US policy. This «landmark change» was announced by C. Rice during her visit to Egypt and since then it was confirmed by her position during her tour around the Middle East countries. C. Rice has apparently contributed to the success of Muslim brothers in Egypt and to success of their subsidiary, Hamas in Palestine. The Muslim Brothers were established for promotion of triumph of «Universal Caliphate» and there are grounds to believe that the American and British intelligence too part in formation of the organization. The author demonstrates that Muslim Brothers are used against any regime of modernization tinge in the Muslim world. The triangle formed of Egypt, Palestine and Iran is an important part of the process initiated. The essence of this process is sequentially described in Al-Qaeda's working schedule entitled «Seven steps to Islamic caliphate» which indicates that the Christian world will have to be totally defeated. Transformation of «Euro Islam» into radical Islam should serve the plan’s execution and the provocation with cartoons is to be considered in this light and as a part of the program.
Does Pressure on Russia Increase?
Pressing on Russia is a problem which deserves analysis offered in the article. Any person who starts a long-term process fraught with prospect of regress (as, for instance, Russian perestroika and its diverse follow-ups) relies on the law of ideological systems rotation and the classical theory of cycles. Anti-Soviet sentiments in Russia have already passed the stage of consumerist liberalism and entered stage 2, i.e. «centrist patriotism» stage. Stage 3, harsh and tough nationalism stage is on agenda. Then perhaps Orthodox fundamentalism and, further on, fascism will follow. To create a barrier to skating down to harsh nationalism new leading social groups, other social system and other management models are needed. However nowadays Russians have neither moral nor material motivation. The major scale strategic modernization is lacking too. The author discusses new trends in pressure on Russia that shift the country towards harsh nationalism. In the first place, these trends include revision of Washington policy towards Moscow. USA demonstrates concern about excessive concentration of power in hands of Putin, about issues of democracy and suggests to punish Russia for its treaty with Tehran (the treaty was made on February 26, 2006), not to allow Russia to «big eight» summit, recommends «not to impede freedom and democracy in neighboring countries». Threats of US nuclear war on Russia are already rung about because US nuclear superiority is allegedly obvious. In order to live Russia needs the mobilization model of development and strategic offensive intellectual openness.
The Prosecutor General’s Resignation: a «Technical Solution» or the Outset of Major Political Transformations?
The author examines the dismissal of the Prosecutor General not as a single event but as a component of a major political process and pays the particular attention to the alliance between Ustinov as a member of «Krasnodar grouping» and I. Sechin, the deputy head of the President’s administration. The author draws a parallel between resignation of Ustinov and resignations of A. Korzhakov and Yu. Skuratov and points out that excessive economic and political ambitions of clans that included the aforementioned persons are the common denominator in both cases. In case of Ustinov this hypothesis finds confirmations in the following events: attacks on Alpha Group, Gazprom, LUKoil and Transneft'. It means that the Prosecutor General office under Ustinov as well as under Skuratov initiated proceedings that affected too many influential figures. Sechin-Ustinov group much in the same way as Korzhakov-Barsukov-Soskovets group earlier sought after establishment of its monopoly over the key export segments of the Russian economy. The author indicates mistakes the Prosecutor General might commit and examines political and psychological consequences of the resignation for Sechin grouping and for the Russian power at large.
The Prosecutor General’s Resignation: a «Technical Solution» or the Outset of Major Political Transformations?(the end)
Developing the topic of the article published in the previous number of the magazine the author performs a detailed analysis of events around the Prosecutor General' resignation and their connections with other conflict stories that unfolded in the Russian elite in recent years. The furniture salons «Three whales» and «Grand» affair initiated as early as in 2000 is obviously stood out among these stories. This affair is not a «criminal adventure» but a non-transparent episode of the struggle amongst inner parties of the power. At the level of known, open facts one discovers the conflict which totally destroys myths about ‘confrontation between liberals and checkists'. It is not a struggle between liberals and people from power structures. It is the internal struggle of the people from power structures. And they fight not for the furniture but for something by far more important, for positions of clans in power and for property. «The furniture scandal» highlighted an intense conflict within the checklist community which seemed to be consolidated. The same scandal also demonstrated confrontation of the Prosecutor General and the chief of the Federal Security Service as members of certain elite groupings. There are other deals including international ones behind these collisions.
Playing with the Fire. The Systemic Analysis of Events that Occurred in the World and in Russia Since Mid-October, 2006
The author does not dwell upon the specific excesses, the Georgian excess in particular. Instead, he investigates the strategic aims of Russia. One of these aims is related with the Russian presence in certain territories, namely, those that in the past had been parts of the Czarist Russia and the USSR. The author considers various contingent scenarios. Two of these are expansive ones, the third scenario is conservative while the fourth scenario implies the diminutive strategy which is allegedly consistent with the genuine Russian interest. The role of «the Russian Party» is considered in this connection. The author points out that the Russian Party’s activity actually accelerates dying-out of the Russian people. Programming of Russians who have suffered the most from the collapse of the USSR to xenophobic attitudes means their programming to diminution of their territory. The Russian Party’s doctrine is not the nationalism but its exact opposite, the syndrome artificially and intentionally concocted for disintegration of Russia. The state structure of the USSR was logical and effective because it was crowned by the super-national and super-confessional idea to which all nations and confessions were «attached» and which provided the impetus to modernization. Attempts to create the nation state after the disintegration of the USSR failed because the social, economic and political regress was launched instead of the accelerated modernization. Russia where people who belong to hundreds various ethnic groups live is utterly unable to build the Russian mono-ethnic state because every molecule of the Russian history is encoded with multinational amalgam. If Russians split this amalgam they will encounter with collapse earlier than they will gather the desired mono-ethnic components. The only case in hand is building of the nation state which rejects the demand of the ethnic identification.
The Children of a Non-commissioned Officer’s Widow
The article is a rejoinder to the boisterous reaction of the CPRF elite to the author’s works that had been published earlier and contained criticism of the CPRF leaders. The author notes that the text published and disseminated by the CPRF press service cannot be perceived as a discussion material because it omits discussion of the principal issue: the political results of activities the CPRF carried on from its inception onwards, i.e. for 15 years. Persons who concocted this text also skirt topics that the author suggests to discuss for a long time. Collision of regress in Russia and forms of struggle under conditions of growing regress are among these topics. Instead of restoring the Soviet positive notions in the public conscience and developing ideas without which the country cannot survive the CPRF elite propagates extremely dangerous politically and ideologically topics, i.e. «sustainable growth concept» and «limits to revolution». Thereby the CPRF elite reveal the ultra-comprador nature of their ideology.
The Threat of Nuclear War. Pacifist Myths and Dangerous Reality
The US Minister of defense speech in the US Congress in which he introduced Russia into «the axis of evil» was one of the reasons that caused the Russian President’s hard-hitting report at the security conference in Munich. V.V.Putin in rather strong terms described US and NATO policy as well as the Pentagon head’s statement on necessity to increase military expenditures, particularly due to the uncertainty of situation in Russia. Revitalization of US and NATO policy on the Russian direction creates considerable problems for Russia because NATO approaches the Russian frontiers immediately and even enters territory of the post-Soviet space. In fact, the US-Russia relations problem is the problem of Russia’s weakness. The US is in haste to take advantage of this weakness. That’s why the authors strongly criticize some Russian circles' reaction to the existing situation. These pundits repeat «no need to dramatize» mantra while the authors provide well-founded arguments in favor of opinion that the intended deployment of NATO missile bases in Poland and radar stations in Czech Republic is pointed precisely against Russia. Thus 20 year epoch of illusions connected with ‘Russia's entrance into the West' has come to the end. Russia needs to have the sovereign state and the sovereign super-project.
Organizational Weapon-2. Dialectics of the Natural and the Artificialin Forthcoming «Final Destruction» of Russia Geopolitics and International Policy Issues
The article deals with the burning issue of organizational weapon and prospects of its employment for purposes of final destruction of Russia. The issue has raised a wide public interest and thus deserves a detailed analysis. Experience of the USSR destruction gives the evidence of the fact that the strategy of pinpoint aimed actions designed to paralyze all mobilization activities of the ‘victim' poses the greatest danger. Any enemy will look for peculiar points of system and attack them. Unfortunately, the Russian society is maturing not sufficiently promptly and is still unable to draw comprehensive conclusions from lessons the history delivered. «How to kill an elephant with a needle» collision described by A. Zinoviev is steadily acquiring a new poignancy for us. The organizational weapon starts with words, relies on them. Words allow reconstructing a lot. The pejorative headings the most influential world media use at address of Russia and its leaders prove to be a bodeful warning. These statements commit people who use them to very much. It is unlikely that these statements will remain to be a fake threat. Systemic measures will certainly follow and confirm words. War with employment of informational sabotage acts, intellectual challenges and mega-operations in the sphere of ideal is waged with due consideration of pragmatism and crass materialism intrinsic to the Russian elite and population. Employment of organizational weapon presents a complex and multi-dimensional plan of actions which provides for the absolute denial of the authorities' access to instruments of severe problems solution. The author considers problematic sectors connected with certain types of actions undertaken by the enemy mounting an attack.
Dead-lock of Pragmatism: on the Genuine Cause which Generates New and New failures in Russian Domestic and Foreign Policy
The author analyzes the peculiar way of political behavior which requires detaching ideals and motivations connected with them from a social system. Stability and soundness of a society depend on presence of ideals in this society. A system can be destroyed by employment of its inherent properties. It is very much like destruction of a bridge by a detachment marching in step. The author detects the cause of the USSR state collapse disaster precisely in initiation of the war against ideals of socialism and the ideal in general. In particular, this process activated certain syndrome which had been generated by the Western intellectuals' encounter with the Nazi ideology. During WW2 the pathology of the Nazi ideals system could be stopped only by the opposite wave of the Soviet society’s ideal. The regrettable format of our reality is explained by erosion of the Soviet ideals and lack of any other intelligible ideal.
Where to did the Rabbit Run? Some Thoughts about Psychological Sources of Lack of Strategy in the Contemporary World
Inaptitude to carry on strategic interaction at all levels of decision-making is one of the most painful and sad signs of the contemporary world. The principal topics of the presentation are possible exits from the current situation of ideological deadlock and decline of values, the urgent need to overcome the mental dumbness, breakthrough to authenticity which is the most important under-stratum of political dialogue. Lack of strategy in the contemporary political culture is result not of some recurrent crisis of ideas but of the actual reduction of the ideal which has been pushed out to periphery of cultural and public life. However a strategic purpose can emerge only in the context of ideal. To what extent this strategic purpose is realistic and attainable is a separate issue. Ultimately the point is about challenge of authenticity, about very prospects of authenticity presence in the political thinking of the 21st century. Nowadays the answer to the question whether the 21st century will be the epoch of complete triumph of imitations, fakes and substitutes or consideration of real problems of the genuine meaning of processes, substantive component of the world politics will prevail depends on those people who are engaging in the complex discussion on the most important problems of strategic interaction.
Values as a Psychological Factor of Strategic Decision-making
Having drawn a distinction between values connected with the highest (ideal) registers of decision motivation and interests determined by utility the author points out that the rational (interest-based) approach in the theory of decision-making strengthened in the 20th century. It is precisely the approach which seems to be one of the most important reasons of failures in the foreign as well as domestic policy of many countries. All motivations of decisions are tinted by values. Therefore in the process of strategic decision making it is necessary carry out not just their rational expert evaluation focused on interests and utility but also certain examination of values hidden behind decisions.
Role of Historical Traumain the Strategic Dialogue Geopolitics and International Policy Issues
It is thought that strategic dialogue between states in the contemporary epoch takes place and evolves within the context of international law norms. However in reality it is most often not the case. States that have greater economic and military power impose their will on weaker states. Sometimes more powerful states impose their terms on weaker states by military force. Meanwhile in some cases such dictatorial behavior of strong states stumbles across seemingly illogical and irrational resistance of weaker states. This phenomenon is caused by existence of historical trauma syndrome in victim countries. Under ‘historical trauma syndrome' the author means various forms of moral trauma and social psychological frustrations of a society (a nation) caused by so called ‘defeat syndrome'. The author considers psychological mechanisms leading a nation or a major social group to frustration and historical trauma, describes a nation’s compensatory reactions to situation of defeat and principal risks a winner takes due to pressure on the loser.
Teeterboard: A New Swing in Secret Services’ War and its Impact on Political Process’ Progress
The subject matter of the author’s analysis is the article ‘It is impossible to allow warriors to turn into salesmen' by Victor Cherkesov published on October 9, 2007, and the nature of the Russian analytical community’s reactions to this article. The author notes not only topicality of Cherkesov’s article but also a great scope of problems Cherkesov deals with. Generally, such endeavors are uncommon for top officials. However the author indicates that acuteness of the problem has been reflected inadequately. The life of the present-day elite is imbued with blood of the primitive accumulation (that is larceny). Oligarchy which unites money and power is forming within this absolutely rotten process of this accumulation. Oligarchy may disrupt the existing state system. If the system comes down it will ruin everything. Therefore, the issue consists, first of all, in prevention of this nightmare. To prevent it ideology is required as sine qua non. It must be ideology in proper sense. Substitutes, pseudo-ideological sects, imitations of the CPSU will be inadequate. The principal danger on the way to genuine ideology is reliance on existing conceptual institutions that are submerged into the anti-systemic «cloaca» and are taking over qualities of this «cloaca».
The article is devoted to the topic recurrently discussed by the author, in this magazine in particular. The topic is lack of ideology and strategy in the Russian structures of power. This lack may become a source of collapse even in a more safe country than Russia. It was precisely collapse of ideology and lack of strategy capable to orientate the society as a whole to creative activity brought about disintegration of the USSR. And precisely ideological and strategic impotence of authorities may to bring to naught all rather provisory achievements of the past 8 years. A society deprived of ideals cannot be sound and consistent and it is impossible to implement its development without strategy.
The author expresses his positive attitude to Medvedev’s professions of striving for stable development of Russia. At the same time the author emphasizes that ‘sustainable development' concept authored by Albert Gore is a myth. It is impossible to mobilize a system for purposes of boosted development without ingredients of correct, flexible authoritarianism. Interests of individual careers, clannish interests, and ideological differences are to be sacrificed to development. People alien to each other in every respect may come together in ‘the territory of development' provided they are ready to put development above everything else. The author examines ‘The conception of long-term social and economic development of the Russian Federation up to 2020' elaborated by the RF Ministry for economic development and trade and demonstrates the conception is devoid of analysis of several important aspects: implementation of the previous Conception of development up to 2010, the current condition of Russia. Besides that, the new Conception lacks of a serious discussion on possible strategies of Russia’s development. The aim of the Conception is declarative and vague, ways are not indicated. Nowadays the authorities' principal task is not substitute political intrigues for development. The contemporary humankind has one topical mega-project of development and this mage-project is called ‘modern' which has nothing common with blind replication of Western models of development (Westernization). The prerequisite of ‘modern' is the national state which is absolutely necessary for implementation of this mega-project.
At the Crossroad: Is Development Possible in Russia?
Events taking place with Russia for past 20 years are unprecedented. After disintegration of the USSR people and leaders of the country cherished a hope to fit into the new order while the general trend of its development was determined mainly by Western strategists. This policy generated predominantly from refusal to carry out a mission of its own, to sacrifice the mission for the benefit of foreign interests. Having forgotten out own historical mission we began to claim rights equal to rights of those who had been present in the external world order project from the start. No one waited for Russia. The successor to the USSR is plunging into regress. In spite of the fact that in Putin epoch disintegration of the state and its institutions which threatened the sovereignty was temporary halted the danger of further slipping to the abyss of historical non-existence is still very high. Sure, the question is about invigoration of the mobilization resource. The very mobilization is to be carried under circumstances of the super-power project. Does contemporary Russia have strength for achievement of this task? The author speaks not of a formal mobilization but cultural and historical mobilization, ‘mobilization model of existence'). So far political establishment of the country does not comprehend the task. New ideas are to be laid at the foundation of any project. There must be the new word the country can say to the world. For us the discussion must not be of functional significance. It is of paramount importance and it must have a value in itself. This discussion must not carry us off politics but must bring us in politics.
The Russian Elite and Challenges of the Time
The article deals with challenges that are urgent for contemporary Russian elite. The present day geopolitical, ideological and spiritual context requires from Russia an adequate attitude to survival problems in complicated conditions of the big strategic game which is pursued for redistribution of global resources, for global supremacy and, in the final resort, for human minds. The Russian elite take risk losing this struggle once again. That happened repeatedly in our history. Russia needs development as much as the air. The country needs to strain all its forces in order to prevent the catastrophe of disintegration and anomie. Principles that development leaders may follow amount to activation of intangible assets, to expansion of production, to imposition of cult of labor and Law, to confirmation of a value system which would exclude backward motion to the traditional and archaic state. Sure, any modernization, any reform, any action will be stopped without clear understanding of who precisely will carry out the project. «Reflection on the subjectivity», cultural revaluation, definition of social core groups that will actively support modernization are the most important complex of demands that are to be lodged to people who perform strategic planning with expectation of success in the nearest future.
The Caucasian Crisis and our Future
The article deals with recent events in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Georgian aggression aimed at peaceful Tskhinvali uncovered many geo-strategic, political, ideological contradictions that require prompt reaction from the RF leadership and the Russian public opinion. Moreover, these contradictions require restructuring of elite relationships and development of new mental matrices. Brilliant execution of military operation aimed at peace enforcement does not put the end to a series of the most acute problems. We face not a recurrent crisis generated by a new round of confrontation between Russia and the West but the global demolition of stereotypes which affects pure technological aspects of the RF foreign policy as well as its conceptual nerve. The old relationship system was constructed pursuant to scheme which implied the gradual RF entry to the Western world. Events in Caucasus ruined this scheme totally and irreversibly. Mentality of leaders must match the changed situation and that will directly define character, stylistics and aims of decisions to be made. Now Russia cannot turn its back to idea of development. The challenge is too serious. We have no other option and have to become the superpower and subordinate disposal of mobilization resources to this end.
Post-modern Modernization: Contemporary Policy Vectors
Will Russia be able to preserve sovereign domestic and foreign policy in the nearest forthcoming years? That is one of the most unpleasant and sensitive issues. It proves to be in agenda under circumstances of global crisis. The author considers two vectors of the contemporary geopolitical strategy. One vector is aimed at the recent past and does not promise progressive development and stability. It is contained in gradual rollback to prior frontier lines and beyond them a bitter prospect of the state’s independence disintegration and extinction. The second vector is contained in continuation of the chosen course. Multitude of difficulties lies in wait for Russia’s elite. Firstly, it is necessary to heal not effects but causes, unravel these causes. Is the stratum of superrich able to sacrifice profits for the sake of the country’s future? Is development in the context of the spiritual and metaphysical exhaustion of the elite possible? Can the true Being prevail over philosophy of quantitative increments, profits, economic and class egoism? These are questions the national leaders and all who is not indifferent to the country’s future will have to answer in the nearest time.
Theory of Development (Existential and Metaphysical Blind-alleys)
The author deals with one of the most acute and debatable issues of the contemporary political philosophy: whether the notion of development a basis for consensus of various political forces or the notion is unacceptable for different rival ideological systems? May people who hold different outlook positions and value assumptions rally around the idea of development? As the practice demonstrates, there is no unequivocal answer to these questions. Representatives of conservative circles development associate with evolutionism and predetermination of progress, with building of the Earthly City of God, with a dangerous social Utopia. Is the idea of development really alien to Christianity? And can a present-day intellectual or a simple Christian bless the logic of retroversion, bear with archaization, with the blind alley of social hell and the ruthless machine of dehumanization? The author focuses on debate over possibility of reconciliation of the theory of systems with concept of development.
The Lack of an Entity’s Properties Syndrome (On the Imminent Catastrophe)
The author refers to the theory of catastrophes. The task for the present day Russia is to understand what is going on in order to remain a real active entity of the world policy and to avoid the role of the big play victim. To that it is necessary to assess risks, to grasp the real arrangement of forces. Nowadays the quality of analytical studies is to be absolutely different from what it used to be. An irresponsible approach of the elite to preconditions of the evolving crisis may bring about the most fatal consequences. In this respect Russia is the least protected country. Willingness to conceal the real logic of catastrophe is bringing about the irreversible slipping down, to the Perestroika-2. Analysis and comprehensive examination of all factors of the regress mechanism comprise the principal content of the article. But the author pays the particular attention to the factor he describes as the lack of the entity’s properties which is characterized by inadequacy of actions taken under circumstances of emergencies. Such inadequacy is related to decay of ability to define objectives and targets and break-down of the conceptual core. The elite involved in the condition of identity collapse may take the whole country away with it. Reconstruction of the entity’s properties is the paramount and urgent task which the power is to solve in the immediate future.
Zealots of the White Truth: on Political Price for Repentance
The article is a rejoinder to the contemporary demands of the Right radicals that receive certain support of the Russian Orthodox Church. These forces demand a new repentance of the Russian nation under the circumstances of the global crisis. The Right radicals pedal the theme of the tsar’s family shooting and in this connection a new round of de-Bolshevization of the Russian society. It would seem where to and for what this preaching is performed? But the White Truth zealots do not quiet down. Sure, the Russian Orthodox Church as one of the state frameworks of the here-and-now enjoys the right to have its point of view. Finally, the spiritual assessment of the past belongs to people striving to restore the historical justice.
However the repentance has two aspects. And what is moral from a preacher’s point of view may by utterly immoral from a politician’s point of view. That happens not because politics is the dirty business a fortiori but because politics has its own logic different from logic of preaching.
A new round of repentance is a move which is politically detrimental and dangerous. In the short run it poses a threat to Russia’s political independence. The blockade circle is contracting. In these circumstances manipulation with symbols and values is fraught with new disaster for the Russian people. Is there any use in such preaching?
Names and Reality: a Feedback
According to the author, vital political philosophy is developed along the paths of overcoming of the gap between names and reality. There is a connection between the external positioning of the power and a state of affairs which may either contradict or correspond the positioning. Now experience of Confucian philosophy may be more instructive for the present-day Russia than the Western experience. Russia is at crossroads. A deep rift has teethed between shibboleths and ‘slogans' the highest ranks use and the deplorable condition of horizontal social ties. And every day this rift is widening and getting deeper. Only change of macro- and micro strategies the political elite pursues may overcome the gap. The elite must acknowledge and recognize how dramatic was the path passed through by Russia in the recent decades. The vital popular political philosophy is a philosophy of action and of meaningful deed.
Not Transgress the Edge: Russia and Strategy of Russia’s Security
Pressing issues of defense policies pursued by Russia and the USA are discussed. Contingency of a fundamentally new approach to nuclear security problems have emerged in the moment when START-1 run of validity is expiring. Any discussion is useful if the both parties have equal interest in it. Dialogue of Russia and the US is not only possible but it is urgent. Particularly in the context when these powers continue to present each other as potential enemies. The new strategy of mutual security which has been recently proclaimed as an innovation project is to be greeted. Thereat Russia cannot reduce its nuclear capability down to a dangerous minimum. This edge must not be transgressed. One has to make advances to the partner’s initiatives with open eyes and clear understanding that under no circumstances any detriment to Russia’s own security and strategic interests cannot be made. Now, after the US initiatives related to ABM defense deployment in the West one should remember about internal contradictions that affect behavior of the «old Europe» elites and those of Eastern Europe. The issue of strategic expansion of NATO and prospects of this alliance remains to be of current concern. What does NATO want to be?
Destiny of Development in the Present-day Russia
The article is a publication of the methodological introduction to S. Kurguinjan's new book entitled ‘Esau and Isaac'. The central problem of the book is consideration of development’s destiny in Russia and the world at large. The author repudiates two methods that prevail nowadays: the academic method which he defines as the retro-method and the postmodernist method. The author offers ‘the third method' which requires various syntheses (of actual political studies and political philosophy, of religious metaphysics and the secular philosophy and so on.)
Destiny of Development in the Present-day Russia (the end)
Fate of development in Russia and the world is the political issue. In itself it requires unconventional solutions, rejection of traditional intellectual patterns and obsolete methods. Appraising role of operational and conspiracy approaches to the political analysis the author focuses on logical analytics. A political analyst has to rely on any recorded open statements. Any word said in public is a micro fact. Henceforth the direct statements on development are to be the subject matter and the foundation of thematic and objective analysis. The aggregation of all logos is the primary material. Logical analytics of the 21st century is striving to confront the dehumanizing reality. A study has to base on non-literal understanding of various political logos and their context to which a word is connected. A word always is a circumlocution fraught with potential for a rational reading.
Putin’s Project. Political Genesis
Discussion of political figures cannot be reduced to private opinions, to talk about personal traits of a person. A politician is not just a person but he is a certain configuration of forces, a creature of some social groups. A politician promulgates certain interests. The sphere is a turf where “players” act. There are no victims here. Therefore either a politician achieves a success or fails but anyway a politician gets involved in this or that play. The lesson derived from Putin’s tenure of power consists in understanding that politician Putin personifies opposite tendencies: longing for stabilization and dependence on regress. And there is no Putin’s blame in that. However it seems that Putin cannot pursue the old line forever. The choice Putin has to make nowadays is the choice between what is desirable and what is proper. And unless the choice is made in favor of what is proper, the desirable will extinguish the country slowly. This is the principal collision of our time.
Counteroffensive of the Modern: Options and Alternatives
The contemporary world has transgressed the line which divides the old world of the Modern (the world of rational secular civilization) from the archaized world which denies valued of humanism and development. Destinies of the Modern depend on politicians who due to various reasons are not ready to counteroffensive of the Modern and incapable to advocate its values. The Modern has many enemies. First of all, it has strategic enemies, i.e. the post-Modern and the counter-Modern. They share the negative attitude towards progress and possibilities of development. For instance, Radical Islam easily finds allies precisely on the basis of fight against the Modern. At the same time any attempt to justify the Modern civilization system by religious motives causes its inner degeneration and accelerates its fall. The negative nature of the post-Modern corresponds to the general trend which is aimed at overcoming of national states' culture and proves that humankind have neither history not possibilities for development. In these conditions the Modern is being destroyed ruthlessly and steadily. Contemporary political leaders should to recognize the danger posed by the current situation and to act not in defense but in offense because for the Modern which embodies the movement forward any stagnation is tantamount to its final and ultimate defeat.
The interview is devoted to a wide range of the present day geopolitical problems that bear relation to domestic situation in Russia (accident at the Raspadskaya coal mine) as well as the sphere of Russia’s interaction with its nearest and «far away» neighbors. Situation in Kyrghyzia, interaction of Ukraine and Russia and issues of struggle against drug traffic and terrorism also become the subject of expert analysis. All these omens of our uneasy time are evidence of fragility and, sometimes, illusionary stability in the world might be. An indirect threat hides behind every event. And any explosion understood literally or as a metaphor may have unpredictable consequences. The correct political analysis serves as a reliable bearing for those who have to take balanced and efficient decisions in the contemporary circumstances.
The author deals with theoretical and practical aspects of the conceptual analytics and with its heuristic potential. The conceptual analytics is based not only on adequate description of a phenomenon but also on examination of geopolitical reality from the conceptual system of co-ordinates standpoint. The conceptual analytics is not fascinated with pseudo-theories and it is not inclined to primitive quasi-conceptualization. The conceptual analytics is quite compatible with sober positivism and has to supplement this positivism and not to oppose it. That said it is important to distinguish adequate notions as instruments of correct analysis from notions loaded with ideology. Within frameworks of genuine conceptualization not only models established by F. Fukuyama and S. Huntington but destinies of the Modern projects are discussed. At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries this project’s destiny has turned out to be open to question. However the very future of humankind and preservation of such urge sing as the ‘life instinct' depend on ability to realize the alternative of Super Modern. For ultimately the point at issue is in what world we will live further.
Rules of the Game. On Cynicism and Morality in Politics
The old problem of responsibility in politics is discussed in the interview. May politics be cynical? Does the morality have a place in politics? It is impossible to give answers to these questions out of bounds of conceptual and situational context which is preset by geostrategic planning. Finally politics pursued by actors involved in political process does not depend on personal desires of these actors. History and politics exist in dialectical relation of what ought to be and of what the given moment requires. That said it is necessary to keep in mind category «meaning» along with categories «morality» and «cynicism» etc. A responsible politics (as well as history) has to have meaning.
The author focuses on history and time, perennial problems of the world science and philosophy. However these abstract theoretical problems should not be considered apart from the present and comparatively recent political context. The problem of history as time which has dense meaning content of it own is investigated in connection with historical experience of Russia which has come through temptations of the liberal epoch. This experience, however, is the legacy which allows understanding of the present day state of the society and to work out the tactics and trajectory of the further development. History and time are burning issues that require profound analytical activity of the society and representatives of its intellectual elite.
Topical Transformations: on Events in North Africa and Middle East
Events occurring in North Africa make it rightful to speak about serious mutations that are indications of the process which was described by the author long ago. The question is a gradual and painful conclusion of the Modern epoch and project and their replacing with conception of the managed chaos. Leaders of superpowers consider this concept as a possible model of control over the world and regions that are interesting in economic and political respects. Religious fundamentalism and its concomitant bringing the humankind to archaic conditions are two most important tools of this global systemic agenda. Finally, the author offers his analysis of balance of forces, of big political game plans, of situation evolving around Egypt and Libya and demonstrates propriety of his explanation.
Topical Transformations: on Events in North Africa and Middle East (the end)
The author considers topical transformations of the world civilization. Presently this civilization is moving away from the Modern project which experiences the phase of acute crisis to the new Dark Ages. However this epoch will not be inspired by the ascent of human mind. It will not contribute to creation of new type of spirituality. These Dark Ages will bring archaization, breakdown of states' territorial integrity and connections among human beings, social anomie. Only the Super-Modern (or the Fourth project) can fend off and defeat the Counter-Modern. The final part of the article is devoted to possibilities to implement the Fourth project and to preconditions and premises of the Super-Modern formation.
On development beyond the Modern’s limits: for what do we need it?
The article is devoted to problems of development beyond the Modern’s limits. What does it mean? In the first place it is necessary to change symbolic notions, to cease putting high hopes on «modernization» and to ponder over strategies of Russia’s development in the contemporary world. Our country has to say some new word which would allow building the whole system of social relationships differently, in Russia as well as beyond its frontiers. It is necessary to deliver the strategy of development beyond the Modern’s limit at the world level. Are prerequisites for that available? Yes, such prerequisites are contained in the Russian history and the cultural heritage of Russia. However, so far we have to investigate the background and purposes of «de-Sovietization» that invite the destruction of the Russian mentality’s imperial core. So far it should be admitted that «de-Sovietization» project is tantamount to the total destruction of everything, tantamount to destruction of our future.
The text published is the conceptual document which defines the nature and character of Russia’s development in the post-capitalist epoch. Sure, the question is not only the analysis of the current situation; rather it is the question of the analysis of the future. The author clearly defines the paradigmatic characteristics that the new Russia has to comply with as it has chosen its own historical path of development. The USSR’s collapse is the global historical drama played out «with no war» and no ultimate defeat. The contemporary Russia as the legal successor to the USSR has a chance to perform a gigantic historical spurt at whatever cost, has strengths including intellectual and social ones for such movement to the future. Now it is important to understand why Russia did not fully accept the western Modern’s path, which was successfully employed and still employs Asia. The point is that the Modern remains to be the paradigm of the West. Asia accepts the paradigm unconditionally since, despite all Asia’s uniqueness and distinctive character, in this instance Asia does not pretend to invention of its own peculiar path. In the early new history Russia clearly saw its assignment. The barbarian pseudo-capitalism did not naturalized in Russia and the counter-Modern facilitates its complete destruction. The only way to rescue Russia is to emerge in a new capacity, mobilize efforts for the path of Russia’s own project establishment.
Inseparability of Metaphysics
The article discusses the prospects of Russia’s development in the modern world. In the post-Soviet era Russia crossed the border separating the Modern as the project born by the modern European history from the postmodernist chaos. The present Russia’s existence depends on whether it is able to launch a new project, rather than restore the Modern project. What is required to accomplish this task is metaphysics, the scope of which during the reign of the Soviet culture was still limited. That has led to the crisis and, eventually, the destruction of what was once the mighty state. We don’t need metaphysics all by itself, not as refined amusement in an ivory tower. We need it as a means of restoration of the distructed semantic integrity and language, as a means of communication. No other logic can exist. Any culture devoid of metaphysics is totally vulnerable. It is just metaphysics, which creates a barrier between human relations and meanings, on the one hand, and death, which makes life senseless, on the other. It is now, that Russia finds itself at the bottom of the abyss, it may become the savior of humanity, as exactly at this point arose a world-historical task of development beyond Modern.
The author deals with the Russian here and now and with the current political process. Our time may be characterized as the time of turbulence and ambiguity. Russia and the outer world are captured by ambiguity: the power is ambiguous but the opposition is ambiguous too. And the drama of disagreement with the glamour violence of the upper strata, the drama the people is experiencing right now is also ambiguous. Yet we have to provide an honest answer to the question: what is the price we have to pay for the current political instability? It is possible to appraise the current situation only from the position of ideals based on the genuine patriotism. And such patriotism is incompatible with the playing into the hands of forces that are interested in the political and military weakening of Russia.
Interview given by S.E.Kurginyan is devoted to the difficult and ambiguous situation that emerged in Russia on the eve and during elections (December 2011 — March 2012). The complexity of the situation is determined by instability of the national political life and presence of antagonistic trends. Kurginyan is dissatisfied with the liberal course announced by the non-systemic opposition as well as with the authorities' strategy that is doomed to ambiguity. Kurginyan is the mouthpiece of the social request of not just stability of the old line but of a strategic project or paradigm for new Russia, Russia of the counter-modern and counter-elite. In such new paradigm interests of the big state would correspond to interests of the private sector and individuals.
Models of Global Hegemony and Their Impact on the World Organization
The author deals with the problems of the world organization and potential perspectives of the economically leading countries' development. One of the world organization model, project Modern, has approached the point of no return. This project is exhausted and depleted. It is quitting to be a perspective one precisely where it did emerged. The USA already is unable to develop within this project’s limits and this fact is confirmed by many economic data. China and India develop within confines of the Modern project but precisely for this reason both countries present a threat to the US hegemony. The big game is just commenced. Russia and India have to pay a greater attention to this game, to examine its thin structure, its logic be all means avoiding the temptation to ‘demonize' any participant of the game. The world and the humankind are to find positive exits from the dead end that seems to be ultimate.
The Energy of Self-Destruction
Adverse forces are colliding in the field of the current Russian reality meaning. The elite cannot be considered as the united and single force. A segment of elite has saddled up the power of protest that in any moment may turn into the power of the country’s self-destruction and bring about the loss of identity, to disaster of ‘the big nation' and loss of independence, economic, energetic as well as, in the final resort, political independence. This assertion applies to meanings carried by different vectors. To put it exactly, it applies to acquisition of the single summarizing, general meaning that is not found as yet. Nowadays it is precisely the lack pf this meaning affects the foreign and domestic policy and is exemplified in shortsighted decisions on WTO and provokes activation of the counter-elite in the current political space of Russia.
Who will Fix the Situation? On the Eve of the Civilizational Disaster
The author deals with the extremely difficult situation that has emerged in the contemporary Russian domestic policy. Nonfeasance of authorities and intelligentsia, growth of protest moods and spirits, religious extremism that lifts its head up, revitalization of inland subversive forces — all that create pre-conditions for collapse of the Russian Federation. The danger is quite real. In this moment one has to understand what forces it is necessary to rely on in order to save the country that is sliding to the social and economic abyss. The role of the national intelligentsia is as great as it had never been earlier because intelligentsia has to turn the protest in a positive direction and to prevent the ultimate disaster.
Overcoming Chaos: the Atomized Society and Politics
The article deals with the current political situation in Russia, with the current elites' struggle, with problems of the current situation analysis, and with the growing confrontment of political groupings within Russia that inevitably affects the spiritual condition of the Russian society as well as the RF foreign policy, the RF relations with its close neighbors. Overcoming the chaos under conditions of atomized society is the task that should be solved by people who are engaged in politics and in accordance with grand purposes and values that are aimed at preservation of the country, its people, its culture and the future of Russia.
Communism: a Glance from Russia and the USA. Interview Given to Tim Kirby
The subjects discussed with Sergey Kurginyan are the spiritual component of the contemporary world, confrontation of the Modern project with the counter-Modern, destiny of the Communist paradigm in new historical context, opportunities of spiritual collaboration on the platform of the great battle for the Human because only the Human is the real driver of the historical process while all material factors are of secondary importance and value relative to the Human. If fact, the great battle for the Human becomes the current big politics' real background.
Crisis is Inevitable: Information War and Displacement of Elite
The author deals with the current situation in the Russian political life. The main content of the current processes are the struggle of elites, alignment and correlation of forces, problem of principal messages formation (messages that the supreme authority sends to elites and the society at large). The crisis of the current domestic policy in Russia arises from the ambiguity of the general situation: elites have not defined their predilections and the vector of further development. Where will move the country? Will we go to East? Or to West? Will we retain our identity and uniqueness or not? How will we fight rodent corruption? It is impossible to provide answers to these questions without renewal of political life, without displacement of elite with some fresh forces and without broad public initiative.
Madness of Asphixy (or Depleted Resources)
The author deals with the nearest prospects of humankind that has lost its historical future. Humankind is suffocating in the gripe of crisis. It is the crisis of the world political class, the elite monster. In connection with that the author is concerned with chances that fall to the lot of Russia. So far the vector of Russia’s development was the movement to the West. However this way is exhausted for the Western civilization has rejected values of Modern and opted for anti-Communist project. The elite has built the civilization of lust to prolong the age of capitalist heaven. But the end will be soon put to this condition and the whole humankind will be subject to reduction. The response of Russia may be contained in promotion of the advanced ideology of counter-elite, the cognitariat that will be able to take upon itself specific and complex mission of control and management in the interests of laboring people.
Concentration of Impudence: Criminal Capitalism and the Russian Academy of Sciences Reform
The article deals with the so much featured reform of the Russian Academy of sciences (the RAS). Whatever may happen in the future, any person sensitive and partial to destiny of the Russian science has to side with the Russian Academy of sciences. This institution represents and embodies the history of all Russian science while those who wish to privatize the RAS property are agents of the criminal capital. It is necessary to withstand all attempts to convert the RAS reform into an enormous raider takeover. Though the RAS in its present condition is a far cry from what it used to be, it as well as its staff is, no doubt, more close to Russia’s interests than those who plan takeover of property. However, the future of the RAS depends on the RAS itself and on the society at large.
At the Very Brink of Disater: Answer to Challenge
The author deals with situation in the present day Russia. Over a quarter of century the country experiences degradation and decay, the post-Soviet syndrome of a kind. Is an exit from the situation possible? The author compares the current situation with the post-revolutionary breakdown and chaos that emerged due to the crisis of leadership. The feudal gentry and bourgeoisie were incapable to overcome the breakdown. The future belonged to the Bolshevists charged with ideal aims and willing to make sacrifices to attain their aims. The criminal capitalism emerged on the ruins of the Soviet Union carries no less danger than the collapse of the authority in 1917. Is it possible to find a force that will stop the country at the very brink of disaster?
Barricades: Logic of Radicalization. How did that Commence
The article deals with events that unfold in Ukraine. The author analyzes the media responses to riots that have occurred in Kyiv this winter. Logic of radicalization us seen everywhere. Events at Maidan and at Grushevsky street are well controlled by the opposition (with all qualifications and deliberate aberrations) and radicals act quite consciously and persistently: they had been well prepared. To be sure, events of this winter are the pilot balloon that has to check stability and endurance of Russia. In fact, all these efforts were made not in vain. They are focused on Russia. There is the only way out: calmness, anti-extremism and law-abidance.
The People’s Will and the Meeting Democracy
The interview is dedicated to the current events in Ukraine. De-Banderization of Ukraine is inevitable. It will occur much along the lines of denazification, and Western assistant will not help. These assistants initially provided help even to Hitler. The end of that story is well known. Therefore, right now the main thing is to see the truth, shake oneself free from the spell of the Ukrainian nazi propaganda. It is necessary to understand fully the goodness, totality and happiness of the choice made by the Crimean people.
New Geo-economic Trends and Their Reflections in the Global and Regional Politics
The article deals with new types of global wars that arise and will arise all over the world (including the Asian-Pacific region). The author examines causes of global economic and military-political crises, backgrounds of the present-day economic condition of the US, roots of the US economic problems, and twinned plan of the US exit from the crisis. Finally, economic reformatting of the world, successes and problems of the American project form the subject matter of analytical material. Immediacy of the issues set forth in the article is conditioned by the fact that Russia’s future depends directly not only on domestic policy but also on the global economic and military-political context.
The author considers an extremely difficult moment of the current history and the current political process connected with involvement of Russian and the EU in the conflict in the South-East of Ukraine. The imperfect Russian statehood provides certain hopes for reconstruction of the USSR (the USSR 2.0) is in need of support by all healthy and sane forces. The Nazi mutiny has occurred in Ukraine and that fact does not allow the Russian patriots any other choice but tacit public support provided to the resistance forces. An alternative structure capable to undertake the state’s functions and to protect its citizens is still lacking in Russia.
Economic Front: a Brief Excursus
The article is devoted to key problems of the Russian economy at the current stage. The author suggests looking at the Russian economy from a specific sight angle. The foreign policy situation changed seriously during the last year and now it is quite possible to say that the Russian economic machine functions in mobilization regime. Taking this approach the author addresses such painful topics as fall of oil prices, the Russian Federation Central Bank and the government’s policies, interaction of the president and elite, economic amnesty and gas wars. In particular, the author notes: there is a serious risk that the government will go along the most simple and available way, that is it will set about optimization (as it is called now) which practically means drastic reduction of expenses on public health care, education, science, culture, social security. At the same time it should be remembered that the economic life affects all spheres including legislation. It is high time to think about improvement of the constitutional process and a new status of the Central Bank.
The Global Economy and the World Crisis: USA, Europe, Russia
The article is devoted to condition of the global economy and to difficult relations of the USA and Europe at the world stage. To ensure influx of the world money saved from the crisis into the USA and strengthen the USA capabilities to increase its foreign debt in a rather indolent way it is necessary to escalate crises, make them universal and increasingly acute. However crises cannot intensify indefinitely. That means a threat of a global war. Such gloomy forecasts seem to dominate in the world economy and do not contribute to its positive dynamics at all. The Russian government has developed the anti-crisis plan and anti-crisis investment program. According to this program banks will get main part of money for additional capitalization, for rescue of the banking system. The remaining anti-crisis investments are actually smeared over the key social and productive branches of economy. It means that the government is going to step on the rake the US Fed and European Central Bank have stepped on already.
The author focuses her attention on the problem of unrecognized or self-proclaimed states. Nowadays the problem became one of the most obvious manifestations of the international law chaotization. The process began in the late 20th century. Nevertheless up to 2008 normative value of such documents as the UN Charter and the Final act of the Conference on security and cooperation in Europe (the Helsinki Act) have been never challenged. The more so the fundamental principles laid in the basis of the international legal order that was established after the World War II. The situation changed drastically after 2008. The author pays a particular attention to events happened in 2008 since it were precisely these events that, in a great extent, created the context ignoring which it is impossible neither to grasp specifics of the Donbass phenomenon (despite the wide spread opinion that has little in common with the first post-Soviet unrecognized republics), nor duly appreciate tenacity demonstrated by the still unrecognized Trans-Dniester Moldavian Republic and Nagorno-Karabkh Republic in their fighting for the territory of right. As the author shows in the concluding part of the article, the significance of this tenacity goes far beyond confines of these republics.
Miracle of Survival and New Threats
The metaphysical fall and subsequent cultural, geopolitical and other disasters caused by that fall have not brought about to the final lethal result they had to bring about. It means that if the process of conflict between Russia and the West has really acquired a long process character and become really fundamental one belonging to issues of the country’s life or death then the subject of the whole system reformatting comes to the fore. The existing system is inadequate to the new reality and new challenges by now. A new plan is required. If this discussion will not be started right now then Russia will have no future. Not because it is necessary to catch up what was missed out but because it is necessary to consider in due time those strategic threats that are not in the center of attention so far but seem to be of great gravity. These dangers may suddenly make everything else dull and senseless.
Self-preservation. Challenge of the Time
The article is devoted to the problem of modern Russia’s survival in the global world, to the challenges that present combination of the country’s foreign and domestic policy factors. Russia has not just to survive. Russia has to gain a new place in the current military-political, religious, cultural context and to fulfill its prescription and assignment. The principal theme of the article is the RF policy in the Middle East and analysis of relation of forces and groupings in this region of the globe.
Язык элитной ответственности
Один из важнейших факторов, позволяющих не допустить распада России, – осознание причин гибели СССР. В российском обществе нарастает понимание того, что крах СССР был губителен. Но на вопрос о том, почему СССР рухнул, пока даются наивные ответы. Статья посвящена не только современной общественно-политической ситуации и перспективам Российской Федерации, но и будущему той аналитики, которая на сегодняшний день может рассматриваться как аналитика элитных игр, как новый способ рефлексии, позволяющий эффективно воссоздавать многомерные модели прошлого, настоящего и будущего. Основным сюжетом статьи является история отношений внутри советской и международной элиты 30-х – 70-х гг. прошлого столетия. История элит и кланов требует не столько научного подхода, предполагающего субъект-объектные отношения, сколько интерпретации, особого рода герменевтики.
Стратегия сдерживания и глобальный конфликт. Аналитика политического дискурса
В статье рассматриваются актуальные проблемы глобального противостояния в мире, современная внешняя политика России и ее контекст. Автор сосредоточился на проблемах ближневосточного урегулирования и роли РФ в этом процессе. Вместе с тем предложен такой аналитический материал, который позволяет понять, каким оказывается политический выбор руководства США и чем это грозит России. Становится очевидным, что Америка не собирается уходить с Ближнего Востока и будет сохранять там свое присутствие. Прежними остаются и стратегия расшатывания национальных государств арабского мира, и создание условий, не позволяющих этим национальным государствам оформиться. США заинтересованы в сдерживании РФ на Ближнем Востоке и повсюду в мире. К этому выводу автор приходит на основе анализа дискурса политиков и политических обозревателей США. Выводы имеют прямое отношение к безопасности современной России и ее месту на международной арене. Цель политики сдерживания заключается в том, чтобы не позволить России консолидировать свои усилия по установлению мира и стабильности в постсоветском регионе.
Железом и кровью. Конфликт во времени и пространстве
Статья посвящена новой геополитической реальности, которая в полной мере определяет сейчас ситуацию на постсоветском пространстве. Речь идет о новой роли Турции и других соседей России в той конфигурации, которая представляет собой очередную опасность и может перелицевать всю политику на Востоке. Автор обращается и к острой болезненной теме турецко-армянских и турецко-азербайджанских отношений, оценивает те вызовы, которые брошены России в современном дипломатическом и военно-политическом контексте.
Перезагрузка с обратным знаком
Статья посвящена чрезвычайно напряженной ситуации, которая сложилась в мире, в том числе с приходом Трампа и в связи с эскалацией ряда международных конфликтов. По мнению автора, ситуация опасна как никогда. В то же время всегда нужно понимать, что внешняя политика тесно связана с внутренней. Идейная раздвоенность российской власти таит большие угрозы. До сих пор в руководстве страны есть силы, которые поддерживают инициативы по расширению ювенальной юстиции, развитию таких тенденций, которые расшатывают традиционные ценности. От того, насколько эффективно патриотические силы смогут противостоять этим вызовам, зависит будущее страны. Власти необходимо пересмотреть отношение к экономическим преступлениям, коррупции, оранжизму. Здесь бесполезны полумеры.
К истории развития политических технологий в России
В статье предпринимается попытка периодизации истории отечественных политических технологий. Согласно авторской гипотезе, формирование отечественных политических технологий всецело зависело от двух исторических условий: культурно-ценностной специфики России и развития в ней новых видов и элементов коммуникации. В качестве методологии используется аксиологическое наследие Грамши, выделявшего такой инструмент власти, как гегемония, осуществляемая через контроль интеллектуалами в обществе культурного дискурса и политической повестки. Автор приходит к выводу, что все виды российских политических технологий должны композиционно встраиваться в целостную государственную стратегию патриотического воспитания, так как это, в свою очередь, не только ценностно консолидирует общество, но и определяет уровень устойчивости и централизации самого государства. Между тем это будет нереально выполнить, если, к примеру, лишь гиперболизировать дореволюционный исторический опыт и одновременно отказываться от советского кейса патриотической консолидации общества.
Идейные расколы и президентские выборы 2018 года (по результатам исследований ИС РАН и ВЦИОМ)
В статье рассматриваются состоявшиеся в марте 2018 г. выборы президента РФ через призму основных ценностных расколов общества, активно проявившихся в период 2012–18 гг. На основании данных мониторинга института социологии РАН и исследований ВЦИОМ, строится шкала консерватизм-либерализм, выделяется несколько группировок. Автор статьи показывает большую стабильность (инерционность) основных идейно-ценностных показателей за последние 20 лет и делает вывод, что формирование нынешнего полумобилизационного политического режима с консервативной системой ценностей опирается не столько на фундаментальные перемены в системе ценностей, сколько на сложившуюся политическую конъюнктуру. Данный режим уже подвергается и будет подвергаться дальнейшей политической эрозии, что освобождает место для появления в стране новых политических и общественных субъектов, в первую очередь на низовых этажах политического процесса.
«We Do Not Know the Society We Live in»? Evolution of «Homo Soveticus» into «Homo Economicus» from the Eyes of the Perestroika Leaders
The article analyzes the views of senior management of the USSR about the role of the «human factor» in the context of Gorbachev's «perestroika» of 1985–1991. As the Soviet people perceived leaders of the country, as they represented his attitude to the reforms, the evolution of his consciousness and behavior – these issues raised in the article, has not yet received understanding in historical science. But without answers it is impossible to give an objective assessment of the policy of «perestroika». In the article, based on the analysis of primary sources based on the methodology of content analysis, the study of the repetition of speech practices revealed the importance of «human factor» in the implementation of the Soviet leadership policy of «perestroika». The study of the ideas of the Soviet leaders about the Soviet man allows deeper understanding of the role of the «human factor» in the Russian reforms as a whole.
The Dynamics of Ideological and Political Preferences for 25 Years. Three Stages of Transformation of Social Consciousness (a continuation)
The article, based on the results of research of is RAS and VTSIOM, shows the evolution of ideological and political preferences of Russians over the past quarter century. The transition from the Soviet type of mass consciousness to the Western one to the moderate-state one to the "zero" is traced. The author reveals the prospects of further dynamics on the basis of the vector of mass public demand. This section of the article deals with the events and processes that developed from the beginning of the "zero" years, to the beginning of the "tenth", to the "third term" of V.Putin and the conflict with Ukraine.
values; mass consciousness; public inquiry; conservatism; liberalism; Westernism; changes; social justice.
The Dynamics of Ideological and Political Preferences for 25 Years. Three Stages of Transformation of Social Consciousness
The article, based on the results of research of is RAS and VTSIOM, shows the evolution of ideological and political preferences of Russians over the past quarter century. The transition from the Soviet type of mass consciousness to the Western one to the moderate-state one to the "zero" is traced. The author reveals the prospects of further dynamics on the basis of the vector of mass public demand.
values; mass consciousness; public inquiry; conservatism; liberalism; Westernism, changes; social justice.
The Dynamics of Ideological and Political Preferences for 25 Years. Three Stages of Transformation of Social Consciousness (the end)
The article, based on the results of research of is RAS and VTSIOM, shows the evolution of ideological and political preferences of Russians over the past quarter century. The transition from the Soviet type of mass consciousness to the Western one to the moderate-state one to the "zero" is traced. The author reveals the prospects of further dynamics on the basis of the vector of mass public demand.
values; mass consciousness; public inquiry; conservatism; liberalism; Westernism; changes; social justice.