Bialiy Juriy Vul'fovich
– Ph.D. in Engineering, vice-president of the International Public Foundation «Experimental Creative Center», deputy editor of «Russia XXI»
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What’s Going Down with the World Economy?
The article deals with the condition of the global economy, problems in financial and investment spheres. Concentration of capital that precludes a serious competition is observed. Many factors bear witness of the global economy restructuring. The increasing economic inequality is one more problem of the global economy that is acquiring greater acuteness. The author devotes a considerable attention to American President D.Trump’s economic program, considers all “pro” and “contra” for realization of Trump’s economic program. Nowadays Europe is in a deep economic and political confusion. Three main blows to the European prosperity and unity are Britain’s exit from EU, crisis created by Moslem migrants and unexpected Trump’s victory. The EU economy is far from being successful. As in the USA, in Europe programs of quantitative restrictions pursued by the European Central Bank in form of bailout of bonded debts of companies and problem-plagued countries do not produced considerable economic growth. China’s chances to gain the global leadership are very high. In spite of numerous problems, there are no signs that economic and financial might of China will crumble. Integration projects initiated by China will meet resistance of the USA. All these factors portend long and complicated years of economic, social, political and military-strategic instability for the world.Keywords: crisis; investments; finance; global competition; world market economy restructuring; concentration of capital; competition.The Global Economy and the World Crisis: USA, Europe, Russia
The article is devoted to condition of the global economy and to difficult relations of the USA and Europe at the world stage. To ensure influx of the world money saved from the crisis into the USA and strengthen the USA capabilities to increase its foreign debt in a rather indolent way it is necessary to escalate crises, make them universal and increasingly acute. However crises cannot intensify indefinitely. That means a threat of a global war. Such gloomy forecasts seem to dominate in the world economy and do not contribute to its positive dynamics at all. The Russian government has developed the anti-crisis plan and anti-crisis investment program. According to this program banks will get main part of money for additional capitalization, for rescue of the banking system. The remaining anti-crisis investments are actually smeared over the key social and productive branches of economy. It means that the government is going to step on the rake the US Fed and European Central Bank have stepped on already.Keywords: global economy; crisis; economic sanctions; economic pressure; global war.Economic Front: a Brief Excursus
The article is devoted to key problems of the Russian economy at the current stage. The author suggests looking at the Russian economy from a specific sight angle. The foreign policy situation changed seriously during the last year and now it is quite possible to say that the Russian economic machine functions in mobilization regime. Taking this approach the author addresses such painful topics as fall of oil prices, the Russian Federation Central Bank and the government’s policies, interaction of the president and elite, economic amnesty and gas wars. In particular, the author notes: there is a serious risk that the government will go along the most simple and available way, that is it will set about optimization (as it is called now) which practically means drastic reduction of expenses on public health care, education, science, culture, social security. At the same time it should be remembered that the economic life affects all spheres including legislation. It is high time to think about improvement of the constitutional process and a new status of the Central Bank.Keywords: fall of oil prices; the Central Bank; economic front and wartime economy; amnesty, optimization; gas wars.New Geo-economic Trends and Their Reflections in the Global and Regional Politics
The article deals with new types of global wars that arise and will arise all over the world (including the Asian-Pacific region). The author examines causes of global economic and military-political crises, backgrounds of the present-day economic condition of the US, roots of the US economic problems, and twinned plan of the US exit from the crisis. Finally, economic reformatting of the world, successes and problems of the American project form the subject matter of analytical material. Immediacy of the issues set forth in the article is conditioned by the fact that Russia’s future depends directly not only on domestic policy but also on the global economic and military-political context.Keywords: the Asian-Pacific region; economic expansion; geo-economics; global and regional policy.The Threat of Nuclear War. Pacifist Myths and Dangerous Reality
The US Minister of defense speech in the US Congress in which he introduced Russia into «the axis of evil» was one of the reasons that caused the Russian President’s hard-hitting report at the security conference in Munich. V.V.Putin in rather strong terms described US and NATO policy as well as the Pentagon head’s statement on necessity to increase military expenditures, particularly due to the uncertainty of situation in Russia. Revitalization of US and NATO policy on the Russian direction creates considerable problems for Russia because NATO approaches the Russian frontiers immediately and even enters territory of the post-Soviet space. In fact, the US-Russia relations problem is the problem of Russia’s weakness. The US is in haste to take advantage of this weakness. That’s why the authors strongly criticize some Russian circles' reaction to the existing situation. These pundits repeat «no need to dramatize» mantra while the authors provide well-founded arguments in favor of opinion that the intended deployment of NATO missile bases in Poland and radar stations in Czech Republic is pointed precisely against Russia. Thus 20 year epoch of illusions connected with ‘Russia's entrance into the West' has come to the end. Russia needs to have the sovereign state and the sovereign super-project.Values as a Psychological Factor of Strategic Decision-making
Having drawn a distinction between values connected with the highest (ideal) registers of decision motivation and interests determined by utility the author points out that the rational (interest-based) approach in the theory of decision-making strengthened in the 20th century. It is precisely the approach which seems to be one of the most important reasons of failures in the foreign as well as domestic policy of many countries. All motivations of decisions are tinted by values. Therefore in the process of strategic decision making it is necessary carry out not just their rational expert evaluation focused on interests and utility but also certain examination of values hidden behind decisions.Ukraine: A Challenge and a Lesson for Russia
In the process of its formation, the Ukrainian republic has become polarised. A complex geographical and political split separates the East and South from the West, following the interests of different clans. This rift causes weakness at the state level, which in turn makes the Ukraine more susceptible to outside influence. Today, the most worrying destabilising factor in the republic is the growth of radical Islam in the Crimea. The recent presidential elections in the Ukraine showed that in the near future, American foreign policy may undergo radical change, leading to the formation of an American-Islamic-European union designed to weaken or even destroy Russia. The main international consequence of recent events in the Ukraine is the threat of a ‘belt' emerging which would isolate Russia from Europe, as well as the threat of radical Islam permeating Russia through the Caucasus. An Islamic explosion in the Caucasus would cause detonations in Adygea, the North Caucasus and the Volga region. Central Asia and the Middle East would follow suit. What we see happening in the Ukraine today could be called a particularly shameful triumph of American policy. The USA have blatantly disregarded all civilised electoral norms. Far from instating Western democratic order in the Ukraine, America is steadily pushing the world into the flames of radical Islam. Unlike the West, Russia today has no clear-cut project for civilisation. In the absence of such a project, it will most likely prove unable to maintain the Ukraine within its sphere of influence. Furthermore, the Ukrainian scenario will then be repeated in other CIS republics and, finally, in Moscow itself. Objectively speaking, the success which American policy is currently enjoying in the Ukraine is doing nothing to stabilise the political situation in the republic. On the contrary, the entire range of ideological, political and clan-driven economic rifts dividing the republic has become deeper and more pronounced. Were the Kremlin to recognise and use this situation to its own advantage, Moscow’s ignominious defeat in the Ukraine could eventually be turned into something of a victory.Economics of Inflation and of Raw Materials Export Stagflation
The author considers inflation as a complicated and multi-dimensional phenomenon. The greatest danger is presented not by inflation per se, but its impact on the economic climate in the country. In order to understand this impact one has to know the real condition of the Russian economy. And official reports and statements are utterly unfit for this end. The official statistics disguises inflation as index on consumer prices. At the same time unprecedented withdrawal of money from the economy is connected with greater influx of money to the country. A «machine» for reception and use of investments has not been created in Russia. In result of that despite the permanent «sterilization» of money the country found itself in condition of short supply of money in the real economy. Such policy accelerates the tempo of the Soviet economic heritage dissaving. The principal point is how to change the state and prompt it to develop and implement a new and effective economic strategy is not discussed in earnest. This question is not even raised.«The Roundtable» (28.04.04): Life and Theater
«…Ife», the para-poem performed in the end of April, 2004, at «Na doskakh» («On the planks») theater served as the cause for organization of the «roundtable». The chief of the creative center and the stage manager of the theater opened the discussion and indicated the problems to be discussed. Is the theater nowadays capable to create new forms of the social being? What phenomena, processes, events of modern Russia can and ought be reflected? What is the aim of such reflection? Can the theater form a new elite, identify a social stratum which has ability to unite itself and prevent the society from enthropy and disintegration? Social scientists, writers, lecturers of Moscow higher education institutions, librarians took part in the discussion.A New World Order or a New World Disorder?
The authors discuss the issue of what the world power centers are building nowadays: whether an order is being constructed or the chaos? To answer the question the authors consider infrastructures of usual, traditional type such as extraction and transportation, transportation communication lines as well as military political, economic infrastructures and infrastructures of the social control. The analysis demonstrates that the world power centers introduce greater chaos in all mentioned infrastructures. Under the guise of struggle against terrorism the world power centers bring various weapons (up to nuclear ones) in regions they are interested in; they are removing, part by part, the existing state structures under the pretext of «nations' right to self-determination» and human rights protection; by means of financial and credit system they are intensifying poverty and economic chaos that bring about the political instability. Infrastructures that are created, first of all, by the US are designated rather for managing chaos and not for ensuring an order. Creators of such «new world order» try to mystify the problem and conceal their real aims. In fact, they need the world chaos that is the symbol of the utmost, ultimate lack of freedom. Russia has to learn how top live in situation of chaos, to learn how to manage chaos in such a way that allows it to become in a order of a kind as it happened during realization of the «Red project». In the USSR the power of ideas charged the masses for implementation of great changes and helped to overwhelm fascism. Nowadays Russia is a test field for any forms of regress and Russia' entering into the «new world order» described above will mean that our national sovereignty and our historical future will be ended forever.National identification happens to become a problem in the period of encroaching globalization. How can one speak of construction of proper Ukrainian civilization when the very notion of civilization is questioned? What can this hypothetical national state be and what it has to do in such new world? Should it increase «multi-vector» policy or should it become a sort of a bridge between the West and East? But is Ukraine ready to withstand durability tests that are applied to any bridge? The author thinks that Ukraine is definitely not ready for such trials. Strength of Russian as well as of Ukraine is connected with the creative power of cultivated political and cultural synthesis. However this is also the weakness for either common ideal or the common enemy may ensure a tight unification of such society.Central Asia. Politically Correct Doctrines and Real Trends in Macro-regional and Global Processes
The article deals with the current situation and issues of policies restructuring in Central Asia and Central Asian region in result of the anti-terrorist operation in Afghanistan. The macro-region as a whole in different measures supports the struggle against terrorism but within this struggle’s framework the USA infiltrates the region and starts playing military-political and economic game of its own there. At the same time China is being pushed off the region while Russia is being squeezed out of it. Raw materials resources and transportation infrastructure are being placed under control. The USA supports and enhances opposition’s attacks against the authorities in all countries while number of schism axes is increasing drastically and elites and populations are drifting away from each other. The political space as a whole is getting to be increasingly chaotic and the social structure is getting to be increasingly fragmented. All that brings about build-up of instability. The authors demonstrate that in Afghanistan nothing has changed but enhancement of instability and… growth of narcotic drugs output. That situation is one more evidence that the world starts building differently: the controlled instability is being created at the periphery and this instability promotes the stagnation. The new «grand game» is the arms race and at the same time the scramble for conquest of narcotic drugs producing territories is unfolding. «Clashes» among potential lords of the world bring about construction of periphery of the peculiar archaic type. The contemporary situation is characterized by the fact that ideology as a form of the classic conscience and the classic modern is replaced with magic craft which is specific to the archaic epoch and post-modern. Synthesis of these two epochs is really abominable. To resist those who impose archaic forms of life and thought it is necessary to mobilize all healthy social forces for fight against indigenization of the society.Devaluation of dollar: a Myth or a Reality?
The authors offer analysis of the situation related to a possibility of the dollar’s devaluation and provide a detailed examination of «natural-objective» and subjective-active factors that have impact on the process. The authors also deal with games played by other centers of economic power and try to overcome their dependence from the USA. Various scenarios of «the dollar’s crash» and consequences such event may have for Russia are examined. The authors analyze the current conditions of the American economy and factors that impede and cushion a crash. At the same time it is emphasized that at the present time there are no conceptual models, no theories, no theoretical paradigms that allow a strategic forecasting. Theoretical framework for such efforts does not exist. Moreover, there is an obvious lack of reliable data for such forecasting. The authors' own position is that no serious war or attack against the dollar or the USA economic supremacy will happen because weakening of the dollar and the USA will inevitably bring about a global crisis. No country or party will profit from such crisis. If it erupts, it will pose a particular danger for Russia.